Do The Atlanta Braves Have a 9th Inning Problem?

Two walkoff homers given up by the Atlanta Braves bullpen have fans clamoring for changes

Atlanta Braves relief pitcher A.J. Minter gave up a walk-off home run to New York Mets hitter Brandon Nimmo last night. / Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Braves came so close to a sweep on Sunday night. 

Up by a run in the 9th inning, the Braves didn’t have closer Raisel Iglesias available. He had pitched both of the previous two games, including Saturday’s non-save situation, where he was tasked with holding the line and preserving Atlanta’s no-hit bid. (The team lost the no-hitter when designated hitter J.D. Martinez hit a two-out solo homer.) 

So Atlanta turned to setup man A.J. Minter. And for the second straight time, the Braves lost on a walkoff homer. It was a mirror of the series opener in Seattle on April 29th - Iglesias unavailable due to working both of the previous nights and Minter gives up a walkoff homer in his place. 

There’s plenty of fans mad about the decision to use Minter in the 9th last night, and understandably so. 

Minter’s not a bad reliever - his 110 holds are a franchise record, and the Texan has a career 3.37 ERA over parts of his eight years in the majors. 

But the ninth inning hasn’t gone right for Minter, and he’s at a loss to explain why. “That’s what’s been killing me this year is just getting the ball to stay in the yard,” said Minter after the game to gathered reporters in the Braves clubhouse. “I don’t know how to fix that, I don’t know if it’s just gonna all even out, but yeah, I mean, I just wish I could tell you.”

Pitching to lefty Brandon Nimmo, Minter’s 3-2 cutter came in at 90.3 mph and leaked into the heart of the zone. Nimmo, who was lifted over the weekend with “intercostal discomfort”, didn’t miss it.  

“You can always make a better pitch, but I’m not a pitcher where I’m gonna work the edges. I’m gonna attack hitters and rely on my stuff. And if I get beat at the end of the day, I get beat. That’s what happened again, unfortunately.” 

⚾Brandon Nimmo, @You_Found_Nimmo! HR (6)
It's outta here! 🍎

5/12/24 @ NYM, ⬇️ 9th
vs LHP A.J. Minter

103.7 MPH / 24° / 396 ft to RF
Off a 90.3 MPH cutter

▶️It's a home run in 14/30 parks.◀️

📺: https://t.co/TxAjTaxlrc pic.twitter.com/dIHZlte6DY

— Home Run Report (@homerunreport) May 13, 2024

It’s an unfortunate ending to the series for Atlanta, one that started with two spectacular Braves wins. It also has people questioning: Do the Braves have a 9th inning problem? 

Raisel Iglesias is still effective

The solo homer from Maritnez on Saturday notwithstanding, closer Raisel Iglesias has been good enough for Atlanta this season. The 34-year-old has continued to prevent hard contact, with a barrel rate allowed of only 2.0%, good for the 95th percentile in all of baseball. As he’s aged, though, his pitch mix has shifted: In 2022, he was a four-seam fastball (96 mph) and slider (85) guy, throwing each around 30-35% of the time. But in both 2023 and 2024, he’s significantly minimized the slider and gone to the changeup as his primary pitch, throwing the 89 mph offspeed close to 40% of the time. The four-seam fastball is still there, coming in at 95 mph and just under 30% usage, but the third pitch is clearly the sinker now, with just under 20% usage. 

These changes have coincided with his August 2022 trade from the Los Angeles Angels to the Braves, and he’s seen a corresponding decrease in ERA - from 3.07 in LA to just 2.11 in Atlanta. 

But several have pointed out Iglesias’ decreased effectiveness in save situations in 2024 - he’s allowing a 3.18 ERA, having given up six runs (four earned) in 11.1 innings last season and has struck out just seven in that span. (By contrast, he had a 2.21 ERA in save situations last season, striking out 45 in 36.2 innings.) 

This appears to be just small sample size noise here - Iglesias has only pitched in twelve games in which he entered in a save situations, converting ten of those. The other two that weren’t converted were a 10th-inning appearance on the road against the Los Angeles Dodgers where the “ghost runner” scored from 2nd on a Shohei Ohtani single to tie the game and send it to the 11th and a Marlins 9th-inning comeback on April 24th that featured two runs scoring on a defensive error at first base, albeit it after three consecutive singles to open the frame. That game also went to extras, with Atlanta walking it off in the 10th. 

No, Iglesias has been effective enough for Atlanta in the 9th inning. That’s not the concern here. 

Let’s talk about A.J. Minter

A.J. Minter, however, continues to spur questions about the difference in his production in the 8th and 9th innings:

Save situations: 0-2, 7.50 ERA with six hits and five runs (all earned) w/ three homers in six innings
Non-save situations: 5-1, 1.69 ERA with ten hits and two runs (all earned) w/ two homers in 10.2 innings. 

As you can see here, the homers are one of the biggest things - Minter’s 7.7% homer rate is by far the highest of his career, with his previous high of 2.3% coming last season. Virtually everything else is improved from last season - he’s walking less batters (8.1% down to 6.2%) while maintaining his hard-hit rate allowed (36.6%) and has actually seen a decrease in average exit velocity, down to 86.7 mph.

The big difference for Minter is, obviously, the homers, but that comes from fly ball rate. His line drive rate has plummeted, from 27.4% to 12.4%, and virtually all of that difference has gone into fly balls, from 28.0% up to 36.6%. 

One problem: the sample size is so small that I don’t really know if it’s all that instructive. Here’s the pitch plot, showing pitch type and location, for the fly balls Minter has given up that fell for base hits:

A.J. Minter's pitches in 2024 that have been fly ball hits / Baseball Savant

There are six of them. 

Feels absurd to try and draw conclusions based on six hits, right? But for the five homers (two in the 8th, one in the 8th, and two in the 9th), they’re all center-cut heaters. Three are four-seam fastballs and two are cutters. 

Three of A.J. Minter's five homers allowed have come on cutters, with two more on four-seam fastballs. All five pitches were in the heart of the zone and elevated . /

It goes back to the pitching philosophy that Minter discussed last night after the Nimmo homer: “I take pride in making hitters earn it,” Minter said. “I’m never gonna be scared of a hitter, I’m never gonna be scared to throw a strike. In that situation, I’m not gonna put the winning run on base. I’m gonna attack them.”

And for the most part, Minter’s attacking of hitters has worked: He’s thrown 58 pitches in the heart of the strike zone and given up only ten hits. Problem is, like we’ve discussed, five have been homers and all but one of those (an 8th-inning solo shot by Shohei Ohtani in a 5-1 loss) have resulted in a blown save or a loss. 

Is it random variance? I don’t know, but it feels like it. The most homers Minter has allowed in a season was 2023, where he gave up six in 64.2 innings, a rate of 0.8 per nine innings. He already has five this season. 

But even in last year’s numbers is a data point towards the argument that save situations are “too big” for Minter or something - three of the six homers he allowed in 2023 came in save situations and another came in the 8th with Atlanta leading by less than three runs (although Minter still got the hold, as the homer brought the Atlanta lead down from two runs to one). 

So what do the Braves do about it? 

It feels like a lot of the recent issues with Atlanta’s bullpen usage have resulted in injuries impacting the availability - Tyler Matzek’s struggles prior to his injury and then Pierce Johnson’s IL stint have meant that there are less trusted high-leverage relievers for the Braves to use every night. 

Some of this is impacted by the offense, as well - the Braves have averaged just 3.3 runs per game since April 26th, resulting in more demand for relievers to pitch high-leverage relievers. 

The configuration of the roster also plays a role - The Braves are missing that traditional role of the former closer that’s used when the high-leverage relievers are unavailable. Kirby Yates played that role well last season, finishing third on the team in saves despite never being the primary closer (Minter had ten saves, coming in second, but he also filled in as the closer until Iglesias came off the IL in early May). 

Is it possible that Ken Giles, currently toiling away in AAA Gwinnett, is eventually in that role? That is the most likely outcome if Atlanta wanted to go that direction, although they’ve had opportunities to call up relievers and haven’t chosen him despite having the 40-man roster space to do so. 

For now, look for the Braves to get Pierce Johnson back soon - he might get activated as soon as Friday after throwing on Sunday back in Atlanta - and try to mix and match the back end a bit more. Restoring Jesse Chavez to last season’s higher leverage usage will help ensure there’s a setup man available for a save opportunity when Iglesias is projected to be down, as well; Chavez picked up thirteen holds and a save last season prior to his injury, but spent the month of April this year working mostly as a bulk reliever for Atlanta. Dylan Lee was working in lower-leverage spots in April, but we saw him deployed in the 8th inning last night and he got a hold, sitting down the final two batters of the inning. 

There are solutions here for Atlanta, but they’ve got to be willing to be a bit more strategic about their usage of the high-leverage relievers.