Explaining the "Michael Soroka service time manipulation" rumors

Here's why the "when" of Michael Soroka's next promotion to the 26-man roster matters

There's been this idea running around the internet (mostly twitter, although I've seen it on reddit, too): The Atlanta Braves are manipulating Michael Soroka's service time. 

Seems like they're trying really hard to keep Soroka in AAA until mid September to get an extra year or service time.

— Overly Positive Braves Fan (@TommyHawkBraves) August 9, 2023

Let's answer some questions. 

Isn't service time manipulation just for prospects?

Sadly, it's not. That is the most common time for it to be manipulated, yes - by holding a prospect down in the minor leagues for just a few weeks, you can gain an extra year of contractual control over them - but it's not the only time. 

So why do it to Soroka?

For the same reason you do it to a prospect - to gain an extra year of control. 

Let me explain. 

Each day a player is on the 26-man roster (the roster that's actually up and playing in Atlanta) during the regular season, they accrue a day of service time. When you get 172 days (out of a 187-day regular season), that's one year of service time. 

For the record, you also accrue service time while on the injured list - if you look, Ian Anderson is assigned to the minor leagues, not the major-league IL, and so he's not getting service time right now while he rehabs from Tommy John surgery. 

The amount of service time you have matters, because once you hit six years of service time, you become a free agent at the end of that season, unless you've already signed a contract extension. 

Michael Soroka, right now, has four years and 122 days of service time per Baseball Reference, but I don't think that automatically updates during the season. 

(Coincidentally, a lot of that was accrued while he was on the injured list, spending the rest of 2020, all of 2021, and a good portion of 2022 on the IL and receiving service time for his rehab.)

Fifty days of service time in 2023 would click Soroka over into five full years of service, which would mean that his last year of contractual control for Atlanta is 2024. 

That's also the final year of contractual control for Max Fried, who has not signed an extension like so many other members of the roster have (we promise, this deep dive into possible Max Fried extensions and their cost is coming). 

Additionally, as we wrote about on Thursday, Charlie Morton's final year of control is 2024 if Atlanta picks up his $20M option (which they probably will - given the cost of free agent pitching, it'll get picked up barring a catastrophic injury or Charlie deciding to hang them up).  

IF Atlanta is deliberately holding Soroka back in AAA Gwinnett instead of having him start for the major league team, the only reason to do so would be to retain his services for 2025.

If not, the Braves could conceivably be in a scenario where Fried, Morton, and Soroka are all gone to open the 2025 season, leaving the Braves with Spencer Strider, Kyle Wright, and...yeah. 

Wait, we could lose all three pitchers? Who would start for us?

See why they'd consider doing something like that? Soroka still gets paid, but the front office doesn't have to rebuild over half the rotation at once. 

And we don't know that's this is a service time manipulation case, for the record. The MLB Players Association takes allegations of service time manipulation very seriously, and these situations have been subject to grievances and bad blood between players and teams (see Bryant, Kris). 

There's another explanation here: MLB's new rules about optioning players to the minors.  

You can just move them back and forth as much as you want, right?

It used to be this way. It's not anymore. 

As long as a player had an option year (each player usually gets three), the old rule was you could move them up and down as much as you wanted, without penalty. Last year, reliever Geoff Hartlieb got sent down to AAA a total of ten times by three different organizations, as well as getting designated for assignment three times.  

The new rule is different: A player can only get sent down five times in a season without giving them the option to either go on waivers (where another team could claim them) or them rejecting the assignment. 

Oh, and if they have five years of service time, they have to agree to being optioned. 

Soroka's been sent down to Gwinnett three times already in 2023 (March 23rd, June 5th, July 23rd), and because he's just short of five years of service time, couldn't stop Atlanta from doing it. (Also - those callups got him thirty days of service time, so he's now just twenty away) 

So you've, at best, got two more times to send him down to AAA and not lose him to another organization. 

It feels like AA's trying to not box himself into a position where he can't move a starting pitcher if he struggles, because the guy's out of options. That's an issue with the bullpen right now - no one has options except for AJ Minter (and he's not leaving), so it's a lot harder to rotate someone out for a fresh arm unless there's an injury or you risk losing someone to a waiver claim. 

So when can Soroka come up and pitch?

The date to watch for here is September 13th. Calling Soroka up before then and not sending him back down means he'd tick over into a 5th year of service. Anything after that date and he wouldn't spend enough time (remember, he needs roughly twenty days). Call him up after that and you're good, because the season has less than twenty days left at that point and no one gets service time for the postseason.   

No service time for the postseason? Really? 

Wait until you find out what they get paid for the postseason. It's not their contracts, that's for sure. 

Anyway, you were talking about Max Fried extensions?

That's next week. Enjoy your weekend. Go Braves. 

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