For Braves Ace, Cy Young Is Still in Reach After Early Struggles

The Atlanta Braves have seen their lefty ace step up his game after the loss of Spencer Strider

Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Max Fried (54) throws against the Washington Nationals in the first inning at Truist Park. / Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Braves haven’t had a Cy Young winner since lefty Tom Glavine in 1998. Glavine’s victory capped a decade of dominant pitching from Atlanta’s “Big Three” of John Smoltz, Greg Maddux, and Glavine. The duo combined for six Cy Youngs in the 1990s, with Glavine winning in 1991 and 1998, Maddux taking three consecutive from 1993-1995, and Smoltz breaking Maddux’s streak with a win in 1996. 

Atlanta could end that drought this season, and it could be another lefty winning the award for the Braves. 

Ace Max Fried had a rough start to his season - in his first two outings, Fried allowed nine runs in the first inning to the Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks, resulting in an ERA of 18.00 after his first five innings of the 2024 season. 

But since then, Fried has been spectacular: 5-2 with a 1.75 ERA, including two complete games and two hitless outings, going six innings against the Seattle Mariners and seven against the New York Mets.

Having those two complete games, the only pitcher in baseball to accomplish that feat so far in 2024, is a source of pride for Fried. “I enjoy going deep into games,” Fried told the media after his victory against the Nationals this week. “I pride myself on it, especially having a couple (starts) early on where I got forced out early. It doesn’t sit well with me. Just trying to do as much as I can to really just attack and go after hitters. Just trying to give us the best chance possible to get deep into games and give the bullpen a blow.”

And attacking hitters is the name of Fried’s game right now. The lefthander sports MLB’s best groundball percentage at 62.7%, the highest figure of his career as a starter. 

Opponents have described it as a feature of his wide arsenal - Fried has thrown seven different pitches this season. “He’s tough because you don’t know which way his ball is going to go — if it’s going to come in, if it’s going to go away, if it’s going to go down, if it’s going to go up,” Mets designated hitter J.D. Martinez said after Fried went seven hitless innings against them two weeks ago. “He’s just a really good pitcher. It’s not a fun at bat.”

He’s got a bunch of weapons,” Cubs manager Craig Counsell said after Fried pitched a complete game in Wrigley Field, holding the Cubs to two runs (one earned) on three hits. “You never feel like you’ve got something to sit on. There was very little in the middle of the plate and it’s good stuff so he pitched very, very well.”

After those first two rough starts, Fried’s currently sitting at 5-2 with a 2.97 ERA. Is it entirely out of the realm of possibility that the lefty could win a Cy Young in 2024? 

There’s a blueprint from last season

Then-San Diego Padres lefty Blake Snell won the 2023 Cy Young for the National League after going 14-9 with a 2.29 ERA. He led the league in ERA+ at 184 and in fewest hits allowed, at only 5.8, but also in total walks with 99. 

His Cy Young looked pretty improbable after his first few starts, too. 

Snell, a notorious slow starter, was 0-4 with a 5.48 ERA after his first five starts of 2023, allowing fifteen runs (fourteen earned) on twenty-five hits in just twenty-three innings. He failed to get past the fifth inning in any of those outings. 

But from there, Snell began focusing on inducing weak contact instead of strikeouts. His first start of May was a quality start, allowing only three runs in six innings against the Cincinnati Reds with nine groundball outs, the most he had gotten in the season to date. After getting just twenty-two total groundball outs in his first five starts, Snell put up nineteen in his next two starts. 

While that increased groundball rate didn’t hold all season, it was a welcome reset for a curveball-dominant lefty that throws a wide variety of pitches at significantly different speeds.  

Snell’s curveball was his best pitch last season, holding opponents to just a .079 batting average and .140 slugging. Fried’s curveball isn’t quite as good this season (a .190 batting average against), owing to some early struggles, but it has been one of the best pitches in baseball in previous seasons. Opponents batted just .109 against it last season and it was a .174 pitch in 2022, when Fried was the Cy Young runner-up in the National League to Miami Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara and his generational season. 

The new approach is working

Since Fried tried to “get back to basics” of who he is as a pitcher, in his words, the results have been exemplary. Starting with the Miami Marlins series, Fried focused on three things: “getting weak contact, getting ground balls and being on the attack.” 

And it’s paid off on both the stat sheet and the win column. Atlanta is 4-3 in those seven starts beginning with the April 23rd complete-game shutout of the Marlins, with Fried putting up a 1.43 ERA and going 4-2. He’s tallied 82 groundball outs in those seven games, an average of almost 12 per game, and has allowed only four extra-base hits during that span. 

While Fried isn’t at the same strikeout pace as Snell was last season, with Snell finishing at 11.7 K/9 and Fried currently at a career-low 7.3 K/9, it’s hard to argue with the results so far.