Giants coming to Atlanta in need of resurgence

The San Francisco Giants have fallen behind in the divisional race and the NL Wild Card thanks to a poorly-timed slump

While the Braves are sitting pretty with a 12.5 game NL East lead, the Giants are looking for something to boost them back up to the surface.

The Giants sat atop the NL Wild Card race at the beginning of August, but a 3-7 run has put them two games back of the Phillies for the top spot, just 1.5 ahead of the Cubs, Marlins and Reds who are tied for the final playoff spot.

At 64-57, the Giants will throw their two top starters at the Braves, who have the MLB’s best record at 78-42, and beating the top dogs is just what the doctor ordered for a resurgence for San Francisco. But it will be a tough task against a team with not only the best record, but the best run differential in the MLB at +208.

Names to Know

The Giants bring some familiar faces to Atlanta this weekend. 2021 postseason heroes Joc Pederson and reliever Luke Jackson are with the Giants as well as the funky left-handed delivery of Alex Wood. In addition, the Giants called up Braves utility man, Johan Camargo, on Monday afternoon, and he’s already made two starts in the infield.

Pederson hasn’t quite exploded this season, as he only has 11 homers and 39 RBI in 256 at bats, but then again, no Giants hitter has reached 20 homers yet while six Braves have trumped that mark. Leading the team with a .892 OPS and 16 homers, first baseman Wilmer Flores has been the Giants best hitter out of the third spot in the lineup.

On a team led by clutch, situational pitching, Jackson has been an asset to one of the game’s top bullpens. In his first season with the Giants, Jackson has a 2.50 ERA with a 2.8 K/BB ratio in 18 appearances.

Jackson has complimented one of the game’s top closers, Camillo Doval. Doval is tied with the Reds’ Alexis Diaz for the MLB lead with 33 saves in 37 opportunities. He ranks third among closers with 72 Ks and has only given up two homers this season in 53.1 IP, which will be useful against the Braves, who lead the MLB with 232 homers.

Keys to the Series

If this series comes down to the bullpen, it will get interesting. The Braves are the best in baseball in first inning scoring, averaging a run per game in the opening frame, and they’ll need to do just that.

Not only do the Giants have a shutdown closer, their bullpen leads all of baseball with 538 Ks. That, combined with their 0.91 HR/9 and 45.7 ground ball percentage make digging out of a hole nearly impossible.

But the Braves pen, bolstered by the acquisition of Pierce Johnson (0.00 ERA in 10 appearances with Atlanta), has been nothing short of studly. They own the second-best bullpen ERA in the MLB in August at 1.86 and the lowest overall ERA in the NL at 3.44.

Offensively, the Giants offense have been middle-of-the pack in about every major category: 19th in runs, 22nd in hits and 29th in steals, but their pitching has helped them stay above .500 for the majority of the year.

For the Braves to have success, they just need to keep doing what they’ve done all season: score early and put the pressure on the Giants’ bats. The Braves make it look easy, but it won’t be against two veteran anchors in the Giants rotation starting the series.

Pitching Matchups

Game 1, Friday at 7:20 p.m. EST: Spencer Strider (13-4, 3.75) vs. Alex Cobb (6-4, 3.62)

The series will kick off featuring two of these team’s top arms. They combine for 24 quality starts, and while Strider will bring the heat and strikeout batters by the bunch, Cobb brings veteran expertise and control.

Cobb is in his 12th MLB season and is continuing his strong work in his second year with the Giants, boasting a 2.6 WAR for the second straight season and mirroring last season with a 3.4 K/BB ratio. His last two starts have been tough losses, giving up six runs to the Rangers and five to the A’s, but he has gone 7.0 or more IP six times this season, including a complete-game shutout of the Cardinals.

Despite a higher ERA, Strider has 120 Ks at home, 23 more than on the road, with only 3.1 more IP and 11 fewer walks. Going against the Giants, who strikeout the fourth-most in the MLB, this should be a good matchup for MLB’s K leader.

Game 2, Saturday at 7:20 EST: Yonny Chirinos (5-5, 5.22) vs. Logan Webb (9-9, 3.26)

This sets up to be the Giants most favorable matchup.

Although the Braves are 3-1 in Chirinos’ starts, he has given up 19 runs on 26 hits and six walks to 18 Ks in four games. He hasn’t gotten past the fifth inning, and he has left the game before completing the fifth inning twice, which seems to be the mark the Braves want from him. If he doesn’t produce in this game, his days in Atlanta might be over.

On the other hand, Webb is coming off his best season in 2022 (2.90 ERA, .240 OBA) and his best start of this season last time out. Facing one of baseball’s best lineups in the Rangers, he went 8.2 innings, allowing a sole run on six hits and a walk and six Ks. He has his lowest ever walk percentage (4%) and opponent OBP (.279) in his fifth season.

Game 3, Sunday at 1:35 EST: Max Fried (4-1, 2.57) vs. TBA

Fried had a strong bounce-back game in his third start off the IL versus the Yankees. Like his first start since returning, he went six innings, this time allowing eight hits and a walk but minimizing the damage to two runs in the win. The Braves have won all three of his starts since his return, and they’ll look to keep that trend going in the series finale.

The Giants threw three different game openers in the series with the Rays, and that is a viable option for them in game three. Possible starters are Ryan Walker, who’s a traditional reliever but has opened 10 games this season including game one of their last series with the Rays, Jakob Junis or Sean Manaea, who both went over 3.0 IP in a shutout of the Rays in game two, or Alex Wood, who threw an inning in game three.

Splits and Trends

While the Braves are an impressive 40-20 at Truist Park, the Giants are 29-29 on the road and are in the midst of a skid, while Atlanta is riding high off dominance of New York.

The Giants have lost their last four series’ dating back to the beginning of the month – all versus American League opponents: the A’s, Angels, Rangers and Rays. They are also 10-12 versus NL East opponents, but this is their first time seeing the Braves in 2023.

On the other hand, the Braves are 8-2 in their last 10, coming off a sweep of the Yankees to start a nine-game homestand. They have thrown four shutouts in the past week – a pair against each New York opponent with 58 runs scored in that stretch.

These two teams each took three-of-four in their own park in two series’ between them last season, and now they are ready to see each other six times in a week, as the Braves go to San Francisco next Friday after hosting the Mets in between the two Giants series’. Each of the three contests will be broadcasted on Bally Sports South in what could be a playoff series preview.

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