How the Luxury Tax Impacts Atlanta Braves Offseason

The Atlanta Braves need plenty of upgrades, but too many years over the luxury tax is going to force them to pick and choose

The luxury tax might save Orlando Arcia's job for 2025 / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

The Winter Meetings is about to be underway, and the Atlanta Braves will look to walk away from it with some key moves to prepare for 2025. 

However, they’ll have to be strategic with how they use their money. It’s not that they don’t have the money to spend, but they risk a hefty penalty for spending past a certain amount. 

The Braves have surpassed that pesky luxury threshold the last couple of years. Each year consecutively a team is over the threshold, the luxury tax they pay balloons. Since this would hypothetically be their third year over the threshold, they would have to pay a 50% tax on spending more than $241 million on payroll. 

It doesn’t take a mathematician to understand that’s a lot of money that can go to other things instead of league revenue sharing - like free-agent contracts for the following season. If the Braves can stay under it for just one season, the tax returns to a first-year penalty of 20%. It’s a move to save tens of millions of dollars. 

Even with this debacle, the Braves still want to make a splash this offseason. To help give themselves the extra wiggle room, they restructured the contracts of pitchers Aaron Bummer and Reynaldo Lopez to pay them less in 2025 and much more in 2026. 

Once the luxury tax resets, it’ll be easier on the payroll to pay these guys more. 

But because they have to be careful, they have to decide which positions are going to require more immediate upgrades. Based on the latest buzz, it looks like the top priorities are starting pitching, the bullpen and a corner outfielder. 

If it wasn’t for the luxury tax, a shortstop would also be on the docket. Writers putting out their stories are well aware of this. The fans in their X replies don’t make it more obvious. The Athletic’s David O’Brien addressed the need best in response to those replies, using the luxury tax as part of the example. 

“Yes, I agree shortstop should be upgraded, but right now Braves are about $24M below [the] luxury tax threshold, and surpassing it for [a] third straight year will trigger [a] 50% overage fee for [amount] amount over $241M. Might lead them to prioritize and start out again [with]  extremely low-cost Arcia.”

They have a low-cost option that played nearly every game last season, and they’re willing to fall back on it. They can also roll with Nick Allen or Nacho Alvarez Jr. if need be. 

When the infield also has Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies and Matt Olson, it’s understandable why the outfield takes priority. The infield has one hole, but the outfield has two. It’s just Michael Harris II to start the season. 

Even when Acuña comes back and evens this deficit out, there’s more to it. Arcia has at least shown he can be a contributing member of the lineup. He was an all-star the year before. However, Jarred Kelenic and Eli White never have. 

It doesn't help when top free-agent options, such as Willy Adames, who the Braves were reported to be in on, are off the board. Also, this exact contract that Adames got ($26 million a year) would've pushed the Braves over the threshold - the space is $24 million.

It’s simply playing the odds when in a bind. 

The pitching staff has even more holes. Max Fried, Charlie Morton and AJ Minter are free agents. There is zero chance all three return - maybe Morton and Minter potentially get re-signed. Setup man Joe Jimenez is out for virtually all of next season as well.

If they don’t address these holes by getting some proven assets, it’ll be a long season regardless of who is the shortstop.  

If it wasn’t for the luxury tax, the Braves might be opening up the checkbook and pushing to re-sign Fried. But that’s not the case.

If they don’t get out from under it now, it’s going to take way longer to do so. More money going to that means less money going to future free agents, and the fans will really dislike that. 

The Braves went 89-73 with every injury under the sun at once and Orlando Arica as their shortstop. A healthier team that maintains having a strong pitching staff and another outfield bat will see better results. 

So, when the Braves head to Dallas, just know they’re going to still make moves, but it’s going to be the calculated moves that have the lowest buy-ins but have the highest payouts.