In Retrospect, Braves Made Correct Decision at Shortstop

The Atlanta Braves passed on the opportunity to invest in a long-term deal for Dansby Swanson and it appears to have been the right move

Sep 26, 2023: Chicago Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson (7) acknowledges the crowd before an at-bat against the Atlanta Braves in the second inning at Truist Park. / Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Braves had a decision to make. 

It was mid-December, 2022. Dansby Swanson, the team’s star shortstop, former #1 overall pick and World Series champion, was a free agent. And president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos had a decision to make: meet his contract offer from the Chicago Cubs, or let him walk? 

Anthopoulos decided not to match the contract, and Dansby left for the Cubs on a seven-year, $177M deal that would take him through his age-36 season. 

Looking back, not overextending the team financially was the correct move for Anthopoulos to make. 

After a spring training position battle between youngsters Vaughn Grissom and Braden Shewmake, Atlanta zagged and installed Orlando Arcia as the starter at short, later inking him to a three-year, $7.3M extension soon after. (Grissom and Shewmake would later both be traded, Grissom to the Boston Red Sox and Shewmake to the Chicago White Sox.)

It wasn’t a popular move at the time - Dansby leaving one offseason after fellow veteran stalwart Freddie Freeman had some in the fanbase decrying the loss of leadership on the team, and installing Dansby’s backup as the starter over the ever-popular Grissom frustrated some fans. 

But it’s hard to argue with the results right now. 

Our own Jake Mastroianni compiled the accumulated stats for both Swanson and Arcia since the start of last season and it’s hard to argue that the Braves have been hurting on the field from the decision. 

Dansby Swanson vs. Orlando Arcia since the start of 2023

Dansby:
- 98 wRC+
- .712 OPS
- 10.1% BB%
- 25% K%
- .235 AVG
- 26 HR
- 20 OAA
- 25.3M AAV

Arica:
- 94 wRC+
- .715 OPS
- 6.1% BB%
- 19.1% K%
- .257 AVG
- 22 HR
- 11 OAA
- $2.4M AAV

— Jake Mastroianni (@ShortStopBall) May 30, 2024

While Dansby’s graded out as the better defender from an Outs Above Average, winning his first career Gold Glove in 2023, Arcia’s been an exceptional defender so far in 2024 and looks poised to be a finalist for the award in the National League. 

And from an offensive perspective, they’ve been virtually the same player. Sure Dansby walks a bit more, but he strikes out a bit more, too.

The financial difference, however, has been vast. Arcia’s making $22.9M less per season than Swanson’s $25.3M AAV, an amount of money that almost perfectly matches Atlanta’s preferred salary for an internal extension. No current Braves player is making more than $22M per year in any season of their long-term extension, but several are making that or close to it - Matt Olson ($22M AAV), Austin Riley ($22M AAV), Charlie Morton ($20M AAV), Ronald Acuña Jr. ($17M), Marcell Ozuna ($16M), and Sean Murphy ($15M) among them. 

The Sean Murphy trade was executed around the same time the Dansby signing with Chicago was official, with the catcher later signing a six-year, $73M extension to remain in Atlanta through his early-30s. It’s clear that the funds were earmarked for one of the two players, and Atlanta quickly pivoted when it was clear they couldn’t meet the asking price for Dansby. 

In his time in Atlanta, Murphy’s been one of the best defensive catchers in baseball, coming in (per Statcast) 100th percentile in Blocks Above Average, 92nd Percentile in Framing, and 84th percentile in Caught Stealing Above Average. And when healthy - he dealt with both a minor hamstring injury and heat-related fatigue in the 2nd half of 2023 - he’s been an offensive force, as well. 

His first half last season was one of the better halves for a Braves catcher in recent history, with Murphy batting .306/.400/.599 and launching 17 homers in 270 plate appearances. Murphy was not only chosen for the 2023 All-Star Game, he was a starter for the team...along with Arcia, who had a .294/.345/.425 line with seven homers of his own. 

Additionally, since Swanson was extended and declined a Qualifying Offer from Atlanta, the Braves received a Compensatory Pick located after the second round. The pick was used on Campbell University pitcher Cade Kuehler, currently rated as the team’s #8 prospect by MLB Pipeline. 

So, who would you rather have: Dansby Swanson, or Orlando Arcia, Sean Murphy and a top-ten prospect?