New York Yankees and reigning MVP Aaron Judge head to Atlanta for a three game set

Atlanta gets a somewhat favorable pitching draw, missing ace Gerrit Cole, while they're throwing Max Fried against New York's 2nd best starter Clarke Schmidt

The New York Yankees are heading into Atlanta to take on the Braves for a three game set in Truist Park, and Atlanta's getting a favorable draw when it comes to the rotation for New York. 

Ace Gerrit Cole, who is 10-3 with a 2.75 ERA in his 24 starts this season, started on Sunday against Miami and is unavailable for the Braves series. Instead, Atlanta will face the other reliable option in this Yankees injury-riddled rotation in Clarke Schmidt and then two fill-ins. 

Names to Know

New York's offense starts with outfielder RF Aaron Judge. 

The 2022 American League MVP who led all of baseball in home runs with 62, hasn't been as successful, or as available, in 2023. The gargantuan slugger is batting .284/.415/.638 with 22 home runs, but he's played in only 63 games due to toe and hip injuries that have required multiple stints on the injured list. 

Outside of Judge, it's not a very formidable roster. The 2nd best hitter this season, DJ LeMahieu, has missed five straight games due to a calf injury and his status for the Braves series is still up in the air. 1B Anthony Rizzo (post-concussion symptoms) and former Braves 3B Josh Donaldson (calf injury) are both on the injured list and will not play in the series. 

The Yankees have hit the 8th most homeruns in baseball this season, but outside of that their offensive rankings are in the bottom 3rd of MLB. 

Keys to the Series

Atlanta's offense needs to press the action against New York's starting pitching. Given the sheer number of missing starters (5, including offseason signing Carlos Rodón), the Yankees have leaned heavily on fill-in starters and that excellent bullpen. 

The Yankees bullpen is #1 in MLB in both ERA, WHIP, and H/9, while being 2nd in baseball in HR/9. But they're also overworked, having to cover extra innings with New York's spot starters being knocked out of games early. Atlanta need to take advantage of their opportunities against those starters since nothing's guaranteed with that bullpen.

Pitching Matchups

Game 1 (Monday): Clarke Schmidt vs Max Fried

Monday's starter is RHP Clarke Schmidt. 8-6 with a 4.23 ERA in his 24 appearances this season (23 starts), Schmidt has been the only other pitcher other than Cole to start more than 20 games this season. The 2017 1st rounder out of South Carolina has never faced the Braves, and only two members of the roster (backup infielder Nicky Lopez and platoon outfielder Kevin Pillar) have seen him before - they're a combined 0-3 against Schmidt in their careers.  

Max Fried has now made two starts after being activated from the 60-day IL, and they're a contrast in extremes: The first was 6 scoreless innings against the Pirates with three hits and eight strikeouts (no walks). The second was four inning with four runs and six hits against the Mets, striking out only four. But Fried's historically been successful against the Yankees, with his only other start back in 2020 being six innings of four hit, one run baseball with five strikeouts in a 2-1 Braves win. Only three Yankees have hits off of him in the past, with Giancarlo Stanton (3-5, HR, 2 RBIs) being the most successful. 

Game 2 (Tuesday): Luis Severino vs Bryce Elder

Tuesday's starter is RHP Luis Severino. A former top prospect who signed an early extension and wasn't quite able to live up to it. Severino is 2-7 with a 806 ERA in his 14 appearances this season. He's really struggled with homers, having given up eighteen in only 63.2 innings this season. New York's attempted to put an "opener" in front of him recently, but it hasn't really helped - he only made it through the 2nd and 3rd innings against the White Sox the last time out, with five hits and four runs allowed. 

Facing off against New York is RHP Bryce Elder. The 2023 All-Star has struggled after the Midsummer Classic, having given up five or more runs and being knocked out in the fifth (or earlier) in three of those starts. On the season, he's 8-4 with a 3.64 ERA and 97 strikeouts in 131 innings.  

Game 3 (Wednesday): Randy Vásquez vs Charlie Morton

Wednesday's pitcher for the Yankees is another spot starter, Randy Vásquez. Originally thought of as a bulk reliever that was called up to fill in the rotation, he's actually been decently effective in his three starts: 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA. He's appeared in four total games, covering 19 innings, with 12 strikeouts and 2 home runs allowed. No Braves player has faced Vásquez. 

Opposing the Yankees is the series finale is veteran Charlie Morton. 11-10 with a 3.71 ERA in his 23 starts, he's received a decision in 21 of his 23 starts, striking out 136 and walking 65 in his 128.2 innings. He's coming off a most unusual start on Friday night against the Mets: five innings with three hits and SEVEN walks, but no runs allowed in a 7-0 Braves victory. 

Trends and Splits

The Braves have not fared well against the Yankees in recent history - the two teams didn't play in 2022, but Atlanta was only 1-3 in 2021 against New York and 2-2 against the Yankees in the COVID-abbreviated 202 season. 

But Atlanta's got all the momentum in this one, as they're coming off of a dominant weekend against the Yankees' crosstown rival Mets, winning three of four and outscoring the Mets 40-10. Meanwhile, the Yanks' have lost back-to-back series, dropping two of three on the road against Miami last weekend and the Chicago White Sox last week. Schmidt (White Sox) and Vasquez (Marlins) won their starts, while Severino got BLASTED by the White Sox in a two-inning outing. Sunday's loss to the Marlins was the most demoralizing of the weekend, with New York being up 7-3 entering the ninth only to get walked off, 8-5, thanks to RBIs by deadline acquisitions Josh Bell and Jake Burger.   

These two teams are set for their one and only series matchup this season. All three games are being broadcast in Braves Country on Bally Sports South, while TBS will carry Tuesday's game two nationally out-of-market.

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