NL East Preview: What are the Miami Marlins doing, exactly?

The Miami Marlins have made sure this offseason that they shouldn't be a threat to the Atlanta Braves in 2024

The Atlanta Braves have dominated the National League East in recent years, having won six straight NL East titles. 

Even in years like 2022, where the New York Mets overachieve and win 100+ games, the Braves still find a way to take the division crown at the end of the day. 

One team that's never won the division, and hasn't made many moves this offseason to rectify that, is the Miami Marlins. 

Having made the postseason last year at 84-78, capturing the 2nd Wild Card spot, the Marlins are the only team in all of MLB to have not signed a single external free agent. What's going on in Miami, and what are proper expectations for the club in 2024? 

Key departures:

Jessica Alcheh-USA TODAY Sports

Player opt out: RF/DH Jorge Soler 
Became free agent: INF Joey Wendle (signed with NY Mets), RP David Robertson, 1B Yuli Gurriel
Club option declined: SP - Johnny Cueto
Non-tendered: C Jacob Stallings (signed wit Colorado Rockies), INF/OF Garrett Hampson (signed with KC Royals)

Soler signed a three-year, $36M deal with Miami after the 2021 World Series, but due to a back injury holding him out of 75 games in 2022, declined to opt out after that season. 

2023 was much better for the veteran slugger, who spent 75% of his time at DH and put up 36 bombs with 75 RBIs. Opting out of the final season of the deal, which would have been for a $9M in salary, the soon to be 32-year old is reportedly looking for a multi year deal and has several suitors. 

Perhaps owing to the $16.5M salary being owed to trade deadline acquisition Josh Bell, who unexpectedly picked up his player option after the season, Miami declined to issue a qualifying offer to Soler and will receive no compensation when he signs elsewhere. (The Qualifying Offer, this season, was for one year and $20.325M)  

Key additions:

Reggie Hildred-USA TODAY Sports

Acquired via trade - C Christian Bethancourt (Guardians), INF/OF Vidal Brujan (Rays), SP/RP Roddery Muñoz (Pirates), RP Calvin Faucher (Rays)
Claimed off waivers - RP Kaleb Ort (Mariners), RP Ryan Jensen (Mariners) - later lost on waivers to Twins

Uh...not a lot to go off here. Miami's the only team to not sign a free agent to a major league deal this offseason, with even the Oakland Athletics spending $2.25M on two right-handed relievers. Consequently, Miami's salary is currently projected for around $97M, a full $13M less than what it was at the end of last season. 

As we mentioned earlier, Bell's player option may factor into this, as his $16.5M salary is close to 20% of the team's entire payroll. 

Two of the four trade acquisitions, Bethancourt and Brujan, are former Rays brought in for depth and as low-cost acquisitions of players that were former top prospects. The other former Rays player, Faucher, was never a top prospect but had fantastic minor league results that, so far, have not translated to major league success. 

Personnel moves:

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Departed: GM Kim Ng
Added: GM Peter Bendix (Rays), Assistant GM Gabe Kapler, Director of Baseball Operations Vinesh Kanthan, Farm Director Rachel Balkovec

Bendix, hired from the Tampa Bay Rays, was obviously brought in to modernize and improve the club's drafting and development. Most of his attention has been on filling empty roles in the organization, with all three personnel hires receiving rave reviews from across baseball. 

As someone who has covered minor league baseball for several years (go check out the award-winning Locked On MLB Prospects wherever you gets your podcasts or YouTube), Miami's player development system has been seen as significantly lacking; it's honestly impressive that they've been able to develop the pitching they have with the deficiencies in technology, analytics, and staffing that they've been dealing with over the last several years. 

I'm not saying that it's completely excusable that they've neglected roster upgrades to focus on various bits of infrastructure improvements, but focus and attention was needed in these areas. Still odd that there's been no work done at the major league level, although its entirely possible the organization plans to use the time between now and spring training to try and find free agency bargains that can improve the roster in meaningful ways.  

Remaining team needs:

Rich Storry-USA TODAY Sports

Shortstop, designated hitter, starting pitching, relief pitching

The FanGraphs depth chart for the Marlins isn't the prettiest of pictures.  

Your starting shortstop is Jon Berti, a 34 year-old who profiles (and arguably has more value) as a utility option that can play all over the infield. With Soler gone, the designated hitter at the moment is Avasaíl Garcia, who batted a whole .185 with 3 homers in 118 plate appearances last season, while the bench is full of young, unproven talent in Bruján, OF Peyton Burdick, and newly promoted utilityman Xavier Edwards. 

Starting pitching, on paper, is fine, but this is a team that'll be without Sandy Alcantara for the entire season after his Tommy John surgery last October, and 20 year-old Eury Pérez (who you may remember for having his twenty-one inning scoreless streak broken by Atlanta when they hung six runs on him in 1/3rd of an inning in early July) is projected as their #2 starter. It's one of the youngest rotations in baseball, with three 26 year-olds as the oldest members of the staff. 

The bullpen isn't much more experienced, with lefties Tanner Scott (12 saves) and AJ Puk (15 saves) teaming with Andrew Nardi (2.67 ERA) to form the back end but without much depth or high-quality righthanded options. 

2024 outlook

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Sportsbooks: O/U 78.5, 4th place in NL East (+2500), per FanDuel
Projections: 84-78, per FanGraphs

Look, this team got worse from last season, and what they did last season wasn't exactly sustainable. 

Miami went a league best 33-14 in one-run games last year, which is something that typically regresses to the mean from year to year. That overperformance, combined with a -57 run differential, means that beat their expected Pythagorean record by a league-best nine wins last season. 

So, to recap: The Marlins score the 5th-fewest runs in baseball at 666, lose Jorge Soler (who, again, led the team with both 77 runs and 36 homers while finishing 2nd with 75 RBIs), and their best pitcher in Sandy Alcantara, the 2022 NL Cy Young award winner. 

Official prediction: I'm taking the under on 78.5 and predicting a 4th place finish.

Should Braves fans be worried about Miami in 2024? 

No. They'll be feisty at times when everything's clicking - Jazz Chisholm being healthy, Luis Arraez finding the rare homerun at just the right time, and a young pitcher having a good outing - but I don't think Atlanta needs to be seriously worried about Miami in 2024. 

John Smoltz has a simple formula for postseason success

Important Braves Today Offseason Stories
2023 MLB Free Agent Rankings
Current Atlanta Braves prospect rankings
Current Atlanta Braves 40-man roster
2024 International Free Agency tracker

Check out Braves Today on Socials!
Follow Braves Today on Twitter!
Like Braves Today on Facebook!
Check out the homepage for more Atlanta Braves News!
Subscribe to Braves Today on YouTube!
Get Exclusive Braves Merchandise