NLDS series preview: Braves get shot at redemption versus Phillies

Atlanta's the heavy favorite...again. Can they stop a Phillies squad that tore through them last year?

The circumstances look all too similar to last year’s National League Division Series. The 104-win Braves enter with six straight NL East titles and the MLB’s best regular-season record, but the 90-win Phillies are riding high off a Wild Card round win when these two teams meet for the second straight postseason.

The Braves enter as heavy favorites for the second year in a row. Yet again, they are the NL’s top seed, and this year, they have the most wins in team history since 1995. But the Phillies are okay with that. They’ve been here before.

Last year, the Phillies sent the Braves home in four games on the way to their first World Series appearance since 2009. They would love nothing more than to make it to the big stage in consecutive seasons for the first time since that same year and win it all for the first time since 2008.

In those four games, the Phillies scored 24 runs despite being shut out in game two. The middle of the Philadelphia batting order was lethal, getting the Phillies on the board first in all three of their wins.

All three of those instances were in breathtaking fashion.

It started out with the Phillies scoring a pair of runs off Max Fried in the top of the first in game one, and they put off a late Atlanta rally to take that one. Kyle Wright silenced their bats in game two, but when the series went to Philadelphia, the Phillies restarted that trend of early momentum. They scored six early runs to put Atlanta in a huge hole in game three and again jumped out to a big lead with a Brandon Marsh three-run homer in game four.

This season, the Braves own the series record between these two division rivals, 8-5, and the team who has scored the first run of the game has won all but two of those games. One of the exceptions was an extra-inning Braves win, and a run wasn’t scored until the fifth inning in a 4-2 Braves win in the other.

With .90 first-inning runs per game this season, the Braves have the best first-inning offense in baseball. Including a seven-run first inning in an 11-4 win over Philadelphia in May, they have tallied 13 first-inning runs versus the Phillies this season in as many games.

Obviously, Ronald Acuña’s theatrics impact that offensive output, but another big factor in getting on the board first is silencing Phillies leadoff hitter Kyle Schwarber before you get to that daunting middle of the order that killed the Braves last October. It can be easy to fixate on Bryce Harper, who is notorious for killing Braves pitching (44 career HRs off Braves), but Schwarber ld the team with 47 dingers this season – including a 483-foot shot off Wright in September.

However, Schwarber can also be a rally killer, as he led the MLB with 215 strikeouts in the regular season. It will be key for the Braves to take care of him and minimize damage versus the middle of the order that consists of Trea Turner, Alec Bohm, Bryce Harper and J.T. Realmuto.

The Phillies will be without Rhys Hoskins this time around, who missed the season after tearing an ACL in Spring Training. Still, the Phillies’ two through five hitters went 20-for-52 with four homers and 16 RBI in the three NLDS games they won last season. Oppositely, they went 2-for-15 in game two when they were shutout.

It will also be key for the Braves to keep their arms healthy. They were haunted last season by Fried and Spencer Strider, who were also on extended rest periods, being held back by injury and illness. Fried will have to deal with his left index finger blister and not aggravate it to have the possibility of starting more than one NLDS game if needed and into the NLCS, and Strider will look to stay on the roll that he finished the season on.

In order to reverse last season’s outcome, the Braves need to punch out Schwarber, limit the damage done by the heart of the Phillies’ order and get ahead early on the scoreboard.

Here are the pitching matchups for the best-of-five NLDS series.

Game 1 (Atlanta), Saturday at 6 p.m EST:

-Spencer Strider (20-5, 3.86) vs. Ranger Suarez (4-6, 4.18)

These two faced off in June, and it was the game mentioned earlier when neither team scored until the fifth inning. Austin Riley went deep for Atlanta’s sole run off Suarez, and Strider allowed a run in six innings while striking out nine.

Despite getting tagged for five runs in 2.1 IP in game three of the NLDS last year, Strider has been lights out versus Philadelphia this year, going six innings against them twice and seven innings twice in four matchups. He struck out nine the first three outings, and then fanned 11 most recently in a win on September 19.

As Lindsay Crosby wrote, starting a lefty versus Atlanta is a bold move. There’s good reason why few teams start lefties against them. (link to story)

Although the Phillies won Suarez’s game one start in the NLDS last season, he earned a no-decision after 3.1 innings of one-run ball with three hits and five walks versus Atlanta. He also got a no-decision in his one start against the Braves this season – allowing one run on four hits over 6.0 IP.

Game 2 (Atlanta), Monday at 6 p.m. EST:

-Max Fried (8-1, 2.55) vs. Zack Wheeler (13-6, 3.61)

Again, Fried got roughed up in game one of last year’s NLDS, allowing four runs on eight hits and a walk in 3.1 IP. However, he should be in much better health this time around as long as his blister doesn’t get unexpectedly worse. He went five innings and allowed one run in a no-decision in his lone start versus the Phillies this season, and the Braves have won his past five starts, including that one.

With Wheeler, it depends what version of him shows up to Atlanta.

Wheeler also started that September game against Fried, which ended in an extra-inning Braves win after Wheeler surrendered six runs in five innings. He also lost game two of the NLDS last season despite allowing just three runs across six innings, but his first of three starts against Atlanta this season was eight shutout innings, so he has had some highs and lows against the Braves.

He was masterful in 6.2 IP of one-run, eight-K ball in game one of the Wild Card round against the Marlins, so if that version of Wheeler shows up and Fried stays healthy, runs will be hard to come by in this game.

Game 3 (Philadelphia), Wednesday at 5 p.m. EST:

-TBA vs. Aaron Nola (12-9, 4.46)

The Braves have not announced a starter for game three, although it is being reported that Wright will be left off the roster. That leaves Bryce Elder (12-4, 3.81) who has struggled as of late with a 5.86 ERA with 28 hits and four homers allowed in five September starts, and rookie A.J. Smith-Shawver (1-0, 4.26) who made six starts this season, as the likeliest options for game three.

On the other side, Nola will start after dazzling in seven scoreless frames against the Marlins in game two of the Wild Card round. Like Wheeler, he has been up and down against the Braves, but being at home might play in his favor.

He spun six shutout innings at home in last year’s NLDS game three, and he did the same in his lone home start against Atlanta this season. However, he allowed seven runs and 14 hits over his two starts in Atlanta, so the Braves have had success against the 30-year-old righty. If the Braves want to jump on him, they’ll want to do it early in the game and let Atlanta’s game three starter work with a lead.

Game 4 (Philadelphia, if necessary), 6 p.m. EST

-starters TBA

Game 5 (Atlanta, if necessary), 6 p.m. EST

-starters TBA

Splits and Trends

The Phillies swept a best-of-three series with the Marlins in the Wild Card round on Tuesday and Wednesday, while the Braves haven’t played another opponent since their regular-season finale on Sunday.

The Phillies looked dominant against the Fish, outscoring them 11-2 in two games. Second baseman Bryson Stott hit an electrifying grand slam in game two along with a long homer from Realmuto, and everyone in the Philadelphia starting lineup notched a hit in game one.

The Philadelphia bullpen did not allow a run until the ninth inning of game two, while working 4.1 innings in the series, and Wheeler and Nola both eased through quality starts.

In an effort for the Braves to stay in tune, Atlanta held public workouts and scrimmaged each day Tuesday through Thursday, but the week void of games is going to be a challenge the Braves face for the second year in a row. They ended the season by dropping two-of-three to Washington, so the question will remain until Saturday: Do the Braves have enough juice left to take down the surging Phillies?

Not until the Saturday night lights in Truist Park shine bright will the answer be revealed, as the past two National League Pennant winners show down on TBS with revenge and repetition at stake. 

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