Predicting the Atlanta Braves 2023 postseason roster
The Atlanta Braves have won the National League East for the 6th consecutive year, and are hoping to secure home field advantage so that they can have a deep run through the postseason at Truist Park. Multiple Braves players have discussed the 2021 World Series run and how important it was to be at home when trying to get through the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NLCS.
Just as important as the atmosphere provided by the home fans, though, is the bench. Atlanta's depth propelled them to that title, with key contributions coming from bench pieces like slugger Joc Pederson and bullpen arms like Dylan Lee and Kyle Wright.
Let's look at how Atlanta might configure their roster for the postseason. The size is set at 26 players, with MLB limiting the number of pitchers a team can carry to 13. All players in the organization by the end of the day on August 31st are eligible for postseason play, even if they're not on the 40-man, and rosters are set prior to each round of postseason play. Injured players can be replaced by another player of the same type (pitcher for pitcher, position player for position player), and an injured player that is replaced on a roster is ineligible for the next round.
Absolute roster locks - position players
Starters
1B Matt Olson
2B Ozzie Albies
SS Orlando Arcia
3B Austin Riley
OF Ronald Acuña Jr
OF Michael Harris II
OF Eddie Rosario
C Sean Murphy
DH Marcell Ozuna
Bench
C Travis d'Arnaud
INF Nicky Lopez
OF Kevin Pillar
Who fills the final spot on Atlanta's bench?
The Braves have used several different players in that final spot on the bench this season - it's usually an outfielder, though, and so we're going with OF Forrest Wall here. Not only does he give Atlanta a 5th outfield option, he might be the fastest player in the organization and a pinch-running role is absolutely up his alley for the postseason.
Absolute roster locks - pitching
Rotation
SP Max Fried
SP Spencer Strider
SP Charlie Morton
SP Bryce Elder
Bullpen
CL Raisel Iglesias
SU AJ Minter (LHP)
SU Joe Jiménez
RP Kirby Yates
RP Pierce Johnson
RP Brad Hand (LHP)
Your starting three is obvious, and Elder's probably the one they trust the most for a 4th starter right now, pending Kyle Wright's finish to the season.
In the bullpen, your top five is set, with Brad Hand probably playing his way into being a roster lock in September by pitching 4.2 scoreless innings with only two hits and no walks, striking out five. His addition gives Atlanta another reliable lefty option behind Minter.
UPDATE: After September 15th's blowup against Miami, Brad Hand's still probably going to make the roster but probably not an "absolute lock". Let's call him "likely".
How does Atlanta fill the long-roles out of the bullpen?
Atlanta's going to have three spots left in the bullpen after the above six, and this is where you could see regular season starters enter the picture. Kyle Wright, assuming everything goes well in his final few starts and he looks closer to form, is probably one of those three. Of your long men, Atlanta probably feels better about Michael Tonkin than Jackson Stephens, so he's the 2nd.
That third spot will be tough. Michael Soroka's season is over. Dylan Lee was placed back on the IL this week and his season is over, as well. Jesse Chavez started a rehab appearance on Tuesday, but Brian Snitker said this week that he's not really in the mix, owing to the time he's been out and the short window to get back into not only game shape, but postseason form. Nick Anderson is still rehabbing, as well, and is a longshot at best to make the roster.
AJ Smith-Shawver feels like a candidate here provided he's healthy - he went on the minor league IL in mid-August and since returning, has thrown only 2/3rds of an inning (31 pitches), on September 3rd. Provided he's healthy, pencil him in here for that final bullpen spot as the team likes his swing and miss stuff.
Don't count out Chavez, though - his shin contusion ended up being a slight break in the leg, but he's a veteran with a ton of valuable experience and was on the way to a career renaissance season when he initially went on the IL. If he can get back and show he's sharp before the regular season ends, he'd be my pick.
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