Reynaldo López Provides Blueprint that Atlanta’s Attempting to Recreate

The Atlanta Braves may have found a market inefficiency to add starting pitching at a value

Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Reynaldo López leads the team in ERA and is .01 runs off of the best mark in MLB for a starter. / Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Braves think they may have figured something out. 

The revolutionary book “Moneyball”, later made into a movie starring Brad Pitt, was a fascinating look into the front office of the Oakland Athletics and executive Billy Beane. The team was known for winning despite a low payroll, credited largely to finding certain market inefficiencies and exploiting them in roster construction. Oakland’s focus on on-base percentage in the book, and then later defense, was emulated across baseball and pushed teams into different ways of evaluating talent and approaching player acquisition in both free agency and trades. 

The Braves may have found a new frontier for that: converting relievers to starters. 

In an offseason where back-end starting pitchers were receiving significantly inflated salaries - Sean Manaea received $28M over two years from the New York Mets and Michael Wacha received $32M over two years from the Kansas City Royals - Atlanta inked reliever Reynaldo López to a three-year deal worth a total of $30M. They also hold a club option for 2027 at $8M (or a $4M buyout). Shortly after the signing, Atlanta announced López was converting back to a starter, a role he hasn’t held since 2019. 

And so far, it’s been the bargain of free agency. Making only $4M in salary this season, López has a 1.75 ERA after nine starts and 51.1 innings, the lowest mark on the team and just .01 off of the major league leader, Seth Lugo and his 1.74, had López pitched the requisite 52 innings to be qualified on MLB leaderboards. 

The conversion has worked so well that Atlanta’s attempting it with two other players - Ray Kerr and minor leaguer Grant Holmes. 

Kerr made his first career start last week and it didn’t go well (five runs in four innings against Pittsburgh), although in his defense he didn’t know he was starting until he arrived at the ballpark on Friday. The team’s kept him at the major league level and it’s believed that he’ll receive another opportunity out of the rotation; the team’s next projected open pitching date is Tuesday, June 4th against Boston in Fenway Park, although they’ve not announced starters for this weekend’s series against the Oakland Athletics. 

Holmes is more intriguing - a former 1st rounder by the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2014 who has yet to debut in the majors, he converted to full-time relief in 2021 and was most recently serving as Triple-A Gwinnett’s closer. But after giving him several multi-inning outings and him acquitting himself well, Gwinnett put in him the rotation on Tuesday for their series opener in Virginia against the Norfolk Tides (Baltimore Orioles affiliate). 

That proved to be a good decision. 

Holmes went five innings with one run allowed on one hit, walking two and striking out seven. Both the run and hit came in the very first batter of the game, as baseball’s #1 overall prospect Jackson Holliday hit a solo homer, but from that point on, Holmes locked down AAA’s best offense. His 74 pitches (46 strikes) included thirteen whiffs and a well-above-average 38% CSW, while he allowed only three hard-hit balls (95 mph exit velocity or higher) in his five innings. He also showed the ability to hold his velocity, consistently hitting 95 mph with his fastball in the final inning. 

With the Braves hunting for a fifth starter - outside of the injured AJ Smith-Shawver (oblique), every other pitcher to appear in the fifth role has put up an ERA of 4.66 or higher. None of Darius Vines (4.66 ERA and 0-1 record in two starts), Bryce Elder (6.46 ERA and 1-2 record in five starts), or Allan Winans (10.80 ERA and 0-1 record in one start) have seized the opportunity to run with that final rotation spot, promoting manager Brian Snitker to declare that the job’s officially open for competition: “We’re going to continue to do anything we can to mix and match things, and guys are going to get opportunities.”

Top prospect Spencer Schwellenbach’s getting the first crack at the job this evening, being called up from Double-A Mississippi for the opportunity. Is Grant Holmes next?