Scorching Braves head to Tampa for matchup of MLB’s top teams

Could we have a World Series preview down in Tampa this weekend?

It’s the last series before the All-Star break, and the Atlanta Braves (58-28) and the Tampa Bay Rays (57-33) are the best teams in their respective leagues and have 11 combined All-Stars (Braves-8, Rays-3). Ending a remarkable April with a 23-6 record, the Rays were the best team in baseball for almost the first three months of the season – all the way until Sunday, July 2.

Then came the undeniable Braves, who have won their past 10 series dating back to May and 18 of their past 20 games. The Braves, since overtaking the Rays on Sunday, lead the MLB with a .674 winning percentage.

While the Braves are up on cloud nine, the Rays have come back down to earth lately, as they are coming in on a five game losing streak after being swept by the Phillies at home and dropping the last two games of a series with the Mariners.

Trends aside, these two clubs rank top five in every major offensive stat category: batting average, home runs, RBI and hits, but the Braves’ late surge – including 61 homers in June and 13 more in six games so far in July – has them rocketing past the Rays.

In the last week, the Braves have posted a .368/.657/1.025 slash line with a team average of .319 and a mere 11.4 at-bats per homer. This is led by Matt Olson, who has a 1.599 OPS, three homers, .556 OBP, is slugging 1.043 with 11 hits and six extra-base hits in the last seven days. Strikeouts have been Olson’s sole weakness this season, but he only struck out three times in that stretch.

But Olson is only one of four Braves with an OPS over 1.0 in the past week, as Sean Murphy owns a 1.689, Ozzie Albies has a 1.260 and Ronald Acuña has a 1.208 OPS. Several of those guys continued the slug fest last time out versus Cleveland, as Olson went 3-for-4 with a dinger and Murphy went 4-for-5 and was a triple shy of a cycle with two singles.

On the other hand, the Rays are 4-6 in their last 10 and have lost their past two series. They are batting .242 in their last seven games with a .300/.444/.744 slash line.

While the Braves have certainly been on top of the world lately, the Rays have maintained the upper hand on the base paths all season, leading the MLB with 106 stolen bases. Living in two hole of the Rays’ lineup, Wander Franco leads the way with 28 stolen bases, followed by Josh Lowe with 19 and Taylor Walls with 18.

It will be key for the Braves to pay close attention to the running game in this series and force the Rays’ bats to straight up outduel the Braves. The combination of Braves catchers Travis D’Arnaud and Murphy have caught 22% of stolen base attempts against them this season.

Opposingly, while the Braves have the second-leading stealer in the MLB in Acuña, who is 41-of-47 in stolen bases, the team ranks seventh in that category with 69 swipes as a team. Trying to stop them is the catcher duo of Christian Bethancourt and Fransisco Mejia, who have cut down 15% of attempted stealers this season.

On the mound, both teams are full of top-notch arms from top to bottom, and there will be a lot of strikeouts in this series. The Rays rank fifth in ERA (3.75) and fourth in WHIP (1.22), while the Braves are third in ERA (3.63) and fifth in strikeouts (808).

The Rays are sending three guys who combine for 12 quality starts to the mound in this three-game series, while the Braves are set to start two All-Stars who are coming off strong outings of their own. All starters in this series are right-handed throwers, meaning the Braves will see a lineup that includes Brandon and Josh Lowe, and the Rays will see plenty of Eddie Rosario.

Here are the pitching matchups for this weekend’s three-game series with the Rays:

Game 1, Friday at 6:40 p.m. EST:

-Charlie Morton (8-6, 3.57) vs. Tyler Glasnow (2-2, 4.50)

Matchup rundown: Game one features one of baseball’s most reliable veterans in 39-year-old Morton versus his former team, who is throwing talented, but injury-plagued, Glasnow.

Morton has been just what he’s supposed to be as of late: solid and consistent, allowing the offense to cook. He hasn’t gotten a loss since June 2 versus Arizona, and he has pitched five or more innings in all but one of his 16 outings this season (4.2 IP vs. Mets).

The hard-throwing Glasnow is making his eighth start since returning from an oblique strain in a rehab start this season after only making two starts in 2022 while recovering from Tommy John. He’s been solid outside of allowing six runs in 4.1 IP versus the Orioles. He has six or more Ks in every start, including 11 and 12 in his last two appearances.

Game 2, Saturday at 7:15 p.m. EST:

-Spencer Strider (10-2, 3.66) vs. Taj Bradley (5-4, 5.27)

Matchup rundown: Atlanta has to feel like it has the upper hand in this one, with Strider leading the league with 155 Ks and Bradley struggling in his last two starts.

Strider is coming off three consecutive starts of six innings or more with nine Ks or more. The All-Star went 6.2 innings, allowing two earned runs on six hits and a walk last time out versus the Marlins. His increased usage of the changeup is getting him strong results.

Bradley has thrown a combined 7.1 innings while giving up five and seven runs in his last two starts. The rookie allowed four homers versus Arizona, which is recipe for disaster against the Braves. The 22-year-old has only pitched as much as six innings one time this year.

Game 3, Sunday at 1:40 p.m. EST:

-Bryce Elder (7-1, 2.45) vs. Zach Eflin (9-4, 3.24)

Matchup rundown: If the series comes down to it, this sets up to be a true rubber match. These two pitchers lead their teams in quality starts: Elder with 11 and Eflin with 10.

Elder is making the start two days before he appears in Seattle for his first All-Star game. He has been great on the road, holding opponents to a .206 batting average and giving up only eight runs in seven starts – most recently, two runs in 6.2 IP on only one K in Cleveland.

Eflin has been a key pickup for the Rays after they got him from the Phillies this offseason. He’s currently carrying his career-best ERA and already has 100 Ks in 16 starts. His last two outings have each been 7.0 IP, and he got a tough-luck loss after giving up two runs and striking out nine last time out versus his former club.

Down on the Bay

The Braves have proven to be road warriors all season, boasting a 28-13 record away from Truist Park. However, the Rays have one of the best home-field advantages at Tropicana Field, where they own a 34-13 record despite getting swept by the Phillies at home this week.

After winning 2-of-3 versus Cleveland, Atlanta is coming in following an off day on Thursday with a healthy and rested bullpen that has given up two runs over the last three series (all in the last two games), while the Rays played in an 11-inning affair with Philadelphia on Thursday after throwing a bullpen game on Wednesday.

The two best teams in baseball are set to square off for the first time this year, and they won’t meet again this year if it’s not for the World Series trophy. Game one can be seen on AppleTV+, game two will be nationally televised on FOX and game three will be broadcasted on Bally Sports.

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