STAT WATCH: What the Braves have left to shoot for with the division title in hand

The Braves, individually and collectively, are on pace to record some gaudy numbers this season, plus there's the little matter of home-field advantage

This has been a memorable season for the Atlanta Braves and their fans, and it reached a crescendo (hopefully not the crescendo) last night when the team emphatically clinched their sixth consecutive NL East title in front of 31,000+ disagreeable Phillies fans. And while our thoughts as fans can now turn to October and the dice-roll that is the modern MLB playoff format, there's still quite a bit left on the regular season table.

Home-Field Advantage

First off, and this is the one the team will focus most on - home-field advantage. The Braves have had the best record in baseball since late June or so, and they've shown no signs of slowing down since. Going into today's action (Thursday 9/14), the Braves have a 7.5-game lead over the Dodgers for best record in the NL. With Atlanta also holding the head-to-head tiebreaker, the Braves' magic number to clinch the top seed in the NL is now nine. The Orioles currently have the best record in the AL at 91-54, and to ensure home-field advantage in a potential World Series matchup, the Braves' magic number is 12. (The Braves are 96-50 and also hold the tiebreaker over Baltimore.)

Team W-L History

The best regular-season team in Braves history is the 1998 squad, which went 106-56. (In modern history that is. There were some powerhouse Boston Beaneaters squads in the 1890s, but in-depth tales of the Beanies and one-man wrecking crew Hugh Duffy will have to wait for another day.) The '98 Braves featured five 16-game winners and led MLB in both position player and pitcher fWAR (especially impressive since this was the year of the 114-win Yankees).

For the '23 Braves to reach 106 wins, they'll need to go 10-6 the rest of the way. Remaining on the schedule are three games at Miami, three at home against Philly, four at Washington, three at home against the Cubs, then three more at home against Washington. Personally, I love the symmetry of going 108-54, which is winning twice as many games as you lose. Atlanta needs to go 12-4 to hit that mark, which might be a big ask considering it won't really mean anything, but it would be a cool plateau to reach.

Team Tater History

A record that's gained plenty of attention is the team single-season home run total. The Braves passed the 2019 Dodgers for the all-time National League record when they hit three bombs on Tuesday night. After Austin Riley's first-inning mash last night, the Braves now sit on 282 taters this season. The 2019 Twins, also featuring Eddie Rosario, set the MLB record with 307 jacks, just outpacing the Yankees that season in the year of the juiced ball. (This was also the season where the Braves set their previous franchise record.)

The Braves need 26 more in the next 16 games to break that record, but as the club will start mixing in more rest days for the starters, reaching that number will likely become more difficult. It helps that several players are chasing notable individual statistical marks. Speaking of...

Individual Tater History - Matt Olson

Matt Olson is currently tied with Andruw Jones for the single-season franchise home run record. He hit his 51st dinger of the season on Tuesday, matching Andruw's monster 2005 campaign. I'll whisper this next part so as not to anger the baseball gods, but...it now seems like just a matter of by how much Olson breaks the record, or if he can even make a run at 60 as Andruw himself encouraged in his congratulatory tweet the other night. 60 might be a pipe dream, but Olson also has an ironman streak going, so he'll be out there in some capacity for every remaining game if he can, which will help his cause.

Individual RBI History - Matt Olson

That ironman streak will be even more important for Olson in his chase to set the franchise single-season RBI mark. Matt has 128 on the season. That puts him four behind Gary Sheffield's Atlanta Braves record of 132, which Sheff set in 2003. He's seven back of Eddie Mathews' modern era franchise record of 135, set in 1953 for the Milwaukee Braves. That's the record you'll likely hear the TV and radio commentators toss out that Matt's chasing. Technically, the outright franchise record is 145, set by the aforementioned bean-eatin' Hugh Duffy in 1894. Matt has a great shot at passing Sheffield and a good shot at passing Mathews, but he'll need to go ham to muscle an icon like Hugh Duffy out of the record books.

Everything That Ronald Acuña Jr.'s Doing

With every home run or stolen base Ronnie collects, he creates a new club of which he's the only member. With 37 homers and 66 stolen bases, he's already done something no one else has ever accomplished, and now it's just a matter of exactly how round the numbers are that he reaches before the season ends. 40 homers and 70 steals seems like the goal here, if there is a set goal, and his recent power surge has him on line to reach those lofty totals. And with a trip to Miami upcoming, we all should remember how much Ronald likes to fry fish.

Obviously the NL MVP award is very much something that's on the table for Acuña to achieve. After Mookie Betts' nuclear August briefly rocketed him past Ronald in the eyes of the Vegas bookies, Acuña has reaffirmed his position as the MVP frontrunner in fine fashion. He and the Braves dominated the head-to-head series in Los Angeles, with Acuña's warp-speed homer in game three of that series serving as a mic-dropper. Betts still has the lead in both fWAR and rWAR (thanks largely to defense), but Ronnie's almost unfathomable statistical profile should keep him in front of the Dodger star in the voting.

One aspect of that profile is runs scored, and Acuña broke Dale Murphy's 40-year-old modern era franchise runs scored record on Tuesday night. Ronald's now at 133 runs scored and counting. (Again Hugh Duffy has the outright franchise record, scoring 160 runs in 1894, the same year he set the RBI record. Dude was a demigod apparently, as he hit.440 that season and won the Triple Crown. That average is the highest in MLB history.) The post-racial integration MLB record is 152, set by Jeff Bagwell in 2000 (Bagwell was good, but I never would've guessed that). Ronnie won't get there, but he has a great shot of reaching the 140s, which hasn't happened post-steroid era. (The only guys to reach that plateau since Bags in 2000 are Sammy Sosa and Alex Rodriguez.)

He's also got a shot at Otis Nixon's modern era team steals record. Nixon swiped 72 bags in 1991. (The outright record is 84, set in 1887 by King Kelly.) With 66, Ronnie has a fair shot at Nixon's mark. He's also got a shot at Chipper Jones's record for times reaching base. Larry reached base 309 times in his 1999 MVP season, even outpacing the best of the Beaneaters (Duffy's 1894 total of 304 is tied for second). Ronald is at 283 with 16 games left. If he plays in all 16, which I expect he will since he's played in every game so far, he needs to reach base 27 more times to unseat Chipper.

He also leads baseball in hits, total bases, and stolen bases. He'll be pushed in all three categories by other players (Freddie Freeman is right behind him in hits, Matt Olson is right behind him in total bases, and Oakland's Esteury Ruiz will push him in steals), but his combined total bases plus stolen bases could place him in the top five all-time, alongside names like Babe Ruth, Rogers Hornsby, and Ty Cobb. He's just been unreal this season in so many ways. And he's done all this while greatly reducing his strikeout rate. While his 2019 season was incredible, he struck out more times that year than any other Brave ever has. This season, he'll strike out fewer than half as many times, and he has a real shot to walk more often than he strikes out. He's currently walked 77 times and been struck out 78. He's just, in so many ways, been that dude this season.

The 40-Homer Club

Matt Olson's already there, and all three of Ronald Acuña, Austin Riley, and Marcell Ozuna have a shot to join him. In 1973, the Braves became the first team to have three 40-homer guys in the same season (Hank Aaron, Darrell Evans, Davey Johnson). The mid-'90s Rockies did it twice, and those are the only three teams to ever do it. Acuña (37 homers) seems likely to reach the mark, while Riley (35) and Ozuna (34) will need to get cooking to get there. But it's not out of the question that they all get there, which would be a first.

Ozzie Albies (29 homers) can join them in the 30-homer club soon, which would give the Braves five members. That would match the 2019 Twins, who also had five guys hit at least 30 (Eddie Rosario hit 32 that year). The Braves have seven players with at least 20 bombs - the aforementioned five, plus Rosario (21) and Sean Murphy (20). Orlando Arcia (17) and Michael Harris II (16) have a shot to join them, though again they'll need to get cooking (or stay cooking in Money Mike's case). The Twins had eight guys hit at least 20. Nine would be a record.

RBIs

We talked about Matt Olson's run at RBI history, but he's not the only guy with a fat RBI count. With Austin Riley driving in three last night, he's now at 88. Ronald Acuña has 97, and Ozzie Albies has 93. By no means is it a guarantee they all get to the century mark, but as with the homer stats, they all could get there. The 2021 Blue Jays had four 100-RBI guys, and they were the first team to do that since the 2003 Braves (Gary Sheffield, Chipper Jones, Andruw Jones, Javy López). The record is five, done by several old-timey teams including the 1894 Beaneaters. The only modern-era team I could find that did it was the freakishly dominant '36 Yankees, and no one's done it since racial integration. The Braves won't get five - short of Marcell Ozuna driving in 19 runs in 16 games while Riley, Albies, and Acuña all get the numbers they need, too - but four would be nice.

Rate Stats

It's possible the Braves will do all this damage with only one qualified .300 hitter, Acuña, but Michael Harris has a chance to make it two. He had a rough night last night, wearing the golden sombrero with four strikeouts, which pulled his average down to .291. A hot finish, though, could see him sneak over the .300 line. Again, this won't really change anything about him as a player, but it would be a nice achievement considering how horrible the first two months of the season were for him.

Otherwise, Acuña's locked in a battle with old pal Freddie Freeman for the league lead in on-base percentage. That'll go down to the wire. And he and Matt Olson are both right at the 1.000 OPS mark, with Matt slipping just below it after wearing the collar last night. All nine Braves regulars figure to finish with OPS marks over .750, which is pretty mind-boggling. As a team, the Braves are in the running to lead baseball is almost every notable offensive category - OBP, slugging, OPS, battering average, wRC+, isolated power, etc., etc. The team wRC+ number is currently 124, one run shy of the fabled '27 Yankees, who recorded the greatest team offensive output of all time (among MLB teams - some Negro League teams put up some gaudy numbers that shouldn't be overlooked). That's unbelievable to think about.

Pitching

The main figure here is Spencer Strider, who re-established himself in the NL Cy Young race last night with an ace-like effort in a division-clinching road game. Spencer now has 259 strikeouts on the season, which leaves him 17 shy of John Smoltz's modern era team record of 276, set during his 24-8, Cy Young-winning 1996 season. The Braves have been giving their main starters extra rest days of late and will probably continue to do so, but Strider could eclipse Smoltzie in just two starts if he has good nights. I figure he'll get three more starts, but you never know this time of year.

Also he picked up his 17th win of the season last night, which pushes him past the Cubs' Justin Steele into sole possession of the Major League lead. Getting to 20, for whatever that's worth, will be a challenge, but it could happen. The big thing for Strider now is probably to lower his ERA. While it doesn't carry the same sway it used to carry with Cy Young voters (nor should it), his current 3.73 mark could cost him at least some votes in what figures to be a close race. His xERA (2nd at 3.06), FIP (T-1st at 2.83), and xFIP (1st at 2.92) numbers are all top two in baseball, and he's third in fWAR (5.1).

Otherwise, there are some more modest records in the cards. Charlie Morton, who seemed like he was leaning towards retirement during the celebration last night, is on the cusp of both a 15-win season and a 200-strikeout season. He needs one more win and 23 more strikeouts to get there. The strikeouts may be tougher to accumulate given the extra rest days and all, but it's been a strong bounce-back year for Uncle Charlie. Even if he's leaning towards calling it a career after this season, I'm sure the Braves would take another season just like this one from him without hesitating.

Bryce Elder, whose role in stabilizing the rotation in the first half of the season shouldn't be overlooked, is 12-4 and will need to win out to get to 15 wins. But no stat can represent how much he's meant to the team this year. Closer Raisel Iglesias, who spent the early part of the year on the IL, is sitting on 29 saves and has blown his two chances to get to 30 already (though the Braves still won both games). But reaching 30 should be no issue for him.

In Summary

There are so many stats now that I likely missed several other possible historical feats, but this mass of numbers and records should give you a clue as to how historically excellent this Braves team has been. And as we wind down the clock on the 2023 regular season, know that every game from here on out could result in history being made by someone in an Atlanta uniform. It's been a special season, and I think we've really only begun to understand just how special.

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