Strider looks destined to be among strikeout royalty

Spencer Strider is striking out batters at a higher rate than several all-time strikeout leaders early in his career, but how far can he go?

Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Spencer Strider has quickly become a strikeout king early in his career, but how far can the 24-year-old go on the all-time strikeouts leaderboard?

The righty from Ohio has ranked top 15 in the MLB with over 200 Ks in both of his first two full big-league seasons, and he’s running away with the MLB lead in 2023. He’s entering tonight’s start with 250 Ks and 13.9 K/9 – 23 Ks and 2.2 K/9 higher than any other pitcher this season.

He’s struck out 452 batters in 61 career games – 48 of them starts. That gives him 13.7 K/9 for his career, and he shows no signs of slowing down, as he has 51 Ks in his last seven starts. But in order to rank among the strikeout greats, that’s going to have to continue.

Nolan Ryan is the MLB career Ks leader, with 5,714 across 27 MLB seasons. He led the MLB in Ks in 11 of them and pitched until he was 46. He accrued over 300 Ks in six of those seasons.

So yeah, I’d have to have my head in the clouds to predict that record to be broken. The closest to him is Randy Johnson at 4,135. However, Strider’s first two seasons have given plenty of reason to expect him to crack the leaderboards.

There are only four currently active pitchers in the top 50 all-time in strikeouts: Max Scherzer (311th, 3,367), Justin Verlander (13th, 3,322), Zack Greinke (20th, 2,966) and Clayton Kershaw (21st, 2,930). At age 38, Scherzer needs five more Ks to move past Greg Maddux into the top 10. Greinke is in his 20th season, while the other guys are hovering just under that mark.

If Strider matched his strikeout average between this season so far and last season (226 Ks) every year until he’s 40 years old, he’d strike out 4,068 batters over 18 seasons, which would put him below Steve Carlton at fifth on the all-time list. If he can reach 20 MLB seasons and went at that pace, he’d get to 4,520 Ks, just behind Roger Clemens for fourth all-time.

20 seasons and beyond is quite the rarity, especially in this day and age, but every player in the top 10 of the strikeouts list has pitched at least 20 seasons (Scherzer would change that, with this being his 16th year).

Strider hasn’t missed any extended period since being with the Braves, but he did undergo Tommy John surgery in 2019 before Atlanta drafted him in 2020 out of Clemson. Then again, stars like Verlander have also had Tommy John, and he’s coming off a Cy Young Award season and is pitching in his 18th MLB season. He has 8.1 K/9 this season and is now 19 Ks away from passing Phil Niekro for 11th all-time.

However, Strider will need to avoid a second Tommy John surgery. The second Tommy John surgery, which Jacob DeGrom recently underwent this season, is known to have a longer recovery timetable and a more drastic effect. According to SI's Tom Verducci, recent studies say the average rehab time from a second Tommy John is 20.76 months, and only 29% of those players lasted more than two further seasons in the MLB.

Therefore, it will take longevity and a continuation of his current dominance to crack the top 10 in all-time career strikeouts. Career longevity might be even more important, however, as not even Scherzer or Verlander have struck out batters consistently at Strider’s pace.

In fact, Scherzer’s career K/9 is just 10.7, while his career high was 12.7 in the Nationals’ World Series year. Ryan’s career 25.3 K% doesn’t touch Strider’s 37.7%. It wasn’t until the end of Verlander’s third MLB season that he reached 452 Ks, and he has a 9.0 career K/9. Kershaw has a 9.8 career K/9, and Greinke’s is just 7.9.

Strider is going at an elite pace. He’s recorded 10 double-digit strikeout games this season, giving him 16 such performances in his career already. Two of those are against the Phillies, and he’s fanned nine both times he’s faced Philadelphia this season.

The sky's the limit for Strider, and his career-high is 16 Ks in a game (last September against the Rockies). The only question seems to be how long he can keep it up.

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