Upcoming Schedule Has Both Advantages and Challenges for Braves

The Atlanta Braves have the scheduling advantage over the Philadelphia Phillies, but also some short-term challenges

Atlanta Braves starting pitcher Chris Sale has gotten additional rest before all but one of his starts this season. / Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Braves have had a good start to the season. 

The team’s currently 26-14, remarkable when you consider the struggles that Atlanta has had to face so far: the loss of Spencer Strider (elbow) and Sean Murphy (oblique), although Murphy’s going on a rehab assignment next week and should be back soon, the injury absences of Ozzie Albies (foot) and Austin Riley (side), and the offensive slumps of Ronald Acuña Jr. and Matt Olson. 

In retrospect, it’s almost miraculous that Atlanta’s only three games back in the National League East - the Philadelphia Phillies have won sixteen of their last nineteen games and have pushed their division lead to three games as of Thursday morning. 

The upcoming schedule for Atlanta should help, although it’s not without its challenges. 

Opponent quality matters

One of the most glaring differences between the schedules for Atlanta and Philadelphia has been opponent quality - measured by winning percentage, the Phillies have faced the easiest schedule in baseball so far, with a Strength of Schedule as calculated by ESPN of just .457.

Amazingly, through the first 44 games of the season, Philadelphia has played exactly three games against a team that currently has a winning record: the Braves, who beat them two games to one in the season-opening series at Citizens Bank Park. 

This’ll even out somewhat over the remainder of the schedule, with Philly currently set to face the 13th-hardest slate over the rest of the season with a Strength of Schedule of .504. Their toughest tests include ten games against Atlanta, six games against the Los Angeles Dodgers, three against both the New York Yankees and Baltimore Orioles, and six against the Milwaukee Brewers. 

Conversely, Atlanta’s played twenty games against teams with a record of .500 or better, going 11-9 in those contests. Their remaining Strength of Schedule is just .490, good for only 25th-hardest. Atlanta still gets six games against the Colorado Rockies and a full divisional slate against the Washington Nationals, as well as three against the Los Angeles Angels and six against the St. Louis Cardinals. 

In a cruel twist of fate, the 28th-hardest remaining schedule goes to the Los Angeles Dodgers, whose toughest tests remaining are the Braves (three games), Phillies (six games), and their one series with the Orioles. 

The upcoming schedule doesn’t have a lot of rest, however

For as easy as the remaining schedule is, this stretch that Atlanta’s about to enter is taxing. After today’s off day, the Braves will play seventeen straight days, with the team’s next open date coming on Monday, June 3rd. 

Atlanta’s strategically used off days to give their starters extra rest - Reynaldo López hasn’t made a start on anything less than one additional day of rest so far this season, getting either five or six days of rest before all but one of his outings (and seven days of rest on the other). Chris Sale is in a similar situation, having made one of his starts on regular rest but getting either five or six days between the others. To extend that strategy into this upcoming stretch, the Braves will need to strategically use call-ups from Triple-A Gwinnett to push back their scheduled starters. 

Look for Atlanta to call-up prospects that can be used in a bulk role but are scheduled to start a few days later if not needed. Darius Vines and Allan Winans have both been used in this manner already in 2024, with Dylan Dodd another option in Gwinnett for that type of usage. 

(It’s unlikely that top prospect AJ Smith-Shawver will be a candidate for this; Atlanta’s seemingly tried to limit the length of his outings and he’s covered only 25.2 innings across his first seven starts of the season.)