What Could the Contract Max Fried Signs This Offseason Look Like?

The longtime Atlanta Braves lefty could be in for a sizable contract when he hits the free-agent market this winter

Max Fried could be in for a nice payday this winter. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-Imagn Images / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

With the Atlanta Braves 2024 season in the books, starting pitcher Max Fried prepares to hit the free agent market. 

The 30-year-old lefty is projected to be one of the top starting pitchers on the market if not the top arm. With quality starting pitching always coming at a premium, it begs the question of what his contract could look like. 

Let’s take a look.

In 2024, Fried and the Braves agreed on a one-year, $15 million contract to avoid arbitration. It was a bump up from the $13.5 million he made in 2023. 

It’s safe to say he’s going to get a sizable pay bump, and the projections agree with this notion. Spotrac projects Fried’s market value to be $22.7 million a year. He’s also worth a six-year deal for a total of $136 million. 

Given his injury history, this projection makes sense. He’s made 30 starts just twice in his career. It’ll be tough for a calculator to justify paying him for more than what he can hypothetically produce. 

But this is a calculation. The real world is different. Teams bid. They overpay. If Fried gets a contract around this value, something went wrong over the winter. Even if the Braves re-sign him, it won’t be at this cheap of a deal. 

Fortunately, we can compare contracts from previous signings to help determine what Fried could get. 

Let’s look at a deal that is about identical to what is considered Fried’s market value. At age 30, Kevin Gausman signed a five-year deal worth $22 million a year. Gausman was able to grab this contract due to a one-off, career year in which he received Cy Young votes and had a 2.81 ERA. 

However, Gausman didn’t have a long-term track record. Before that season, he had a career 4.26 ERA. Fried has a career 3.07 ERA and can produce similar innings even with injuries. 

Another contract to compare it with could be Carlos Rodón’s contract that he signed with the Yankees ahead of the 2023 season. He signed for an average of $27 million a year. At 30 years old, he earned the contract after two strong seasons in 2021 and 2022. He had a 2.67 ERA across those two seasons. 

But again, like Gausman, even with the better stats, Rodón has the shorter track record. 

It’s not unreasonable to predict that Fried could net around $30 million a season on the open market. He’ll definitely get a deal that’s around five or six years in length. That matches up with similar contracts on Spotrac

A realistic contract for Fried could be as much as a six-year deal, $180 million. It’s not that much higher than the $162 million Rodón received. Given that prices only go up, this could be seen as a steal not too soon after the contract is signed. 

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