What if Shohei Ohtani chose the Atlanta Braves in free agency?

Could Atlanta afford to add the two-way star, and what would happen if they did?

We're in the middle of a very exciting season across MLB, but there's a small subsection of all baseball coverage that is continuously pointed forward, towards one thing on the horizon. 

The pending free agency of Shohei Ohtani. 

The 2021 American League MVP is the most unique player in modern baseball, capable of being one of the best hitters and pitchers at the same time. 

Right now, Ohtani leads all of baseball in homeruns (25), slugging (.630), OPS (1.010), and total bases (182.) Oh, and he's also 6-3 with a 3.13 ERA and leads the American League in strikeout rate (11.8/9). 

Absolutely an unique player who is, quite literally, doing unprecedented things on a daily basis on the baseball diamond. 

And he's going to hit the open market this winter. The common consensus is that he's destined for Los Angeles, to the Dodgers, or New York, to the Mets, but someone on twitter through out another suggestion: 

Shohei Ohtani on the Atlanta Braves.

The sleeper team that would rock the house for Shohei Ohtani:

The Atlanta Braves

Young. Cheap long-term contracts for the majority of their core with Acuna, Albies, Olson, Harris, etc.

— Gary Sheffield Jr. (@GarysheffieldJr) June 24, 2023

(Note: This is entirely speculation and conjecture on Gary Sheffield Jr's part - who yes, is the son of former MLB player Gary Sheffield and appears to be famous because he is the son of former MLB player Gary Sheffield.)

There's multiple reasons why Shohei Ohtani might sign with the Atlanta Braves in free agency

I think the biggest reason Atlanta might legitimately be a candidate for signing Shohei Ohtani is his self-professed motivating factor: He wants to win. 

Consider when he signed from Japan, back in 2017. He didn't jump to the biggest market available (the Yankees), or go to a team that had a strong heritage of Japanese players (Seattle, with Ichiro). 

He went to the Angels because he said he felt a "true bond" with the Angels and appreciated their approach to the unique challenges that his development would bring.   

But the losing seems to have taken a toll on the phenom. Speaking late in the 2021 season, he professed that his desire to win had become the motivating factor for him: 

I really like the team. I love the fans. I love the atmosphere of the team,” Ohtani said through his interpreter, according to Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times. “But, more than that, I want to win. That’s the biggest thing for me. I’ll leave it at that.”

The Angels, despite having all-everything talent Mike Trout, have exactly zero playoff appearances during Shoehi's tenure with the team, and the Angels are currently seven games out of the division leading Texas Rangers (although within a game of the third and final Wild Card spot). 

But if Shohei Ohtani comes to Atlanta...well, this team's been winning without him. 

It appears on paper to be a perfect match: Seven of Atlanta's eight lineup regulars are signed long-term, with only left field (Eddie Rosario has a club option for 2024) not occupied by someone with at least two years remaining on their contract, and several having five or more years of contractual control. 

Ohtani would be joining a proven winner, with both long-term stability and an organizational history of development that could help him improve his game - unbelievably, he continues to find ways to get better every season, adding a sweeper this season that's become one of his most-thrown non-fastball pitches. 

But financially, could it work, and what are the ramifications if you sign Shohei Ohtani?

Can the Atlanta Braves make the money work for Shohei Ohtani? 

It's commonly believed that Shohei Ohtani, on the free market, could set a record for the largest free agent deal in baseball history, both in total dollars and average annual value (AAV). 

The current leader for total dollars is actually Shohei's current teammate, Mike Trout, who signed for twelve years and $426.5M dollars in March 2019. He signed it at age 27, and it carries an AAV of $35.5M. (Note: This was technically an extension, not a player on the free agency market. The largest free agent contract is Aaron Judge, making $360M over nine years, for a $40M AAV.)

The current co-leaders for AAV are Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander, who both are making $43.3M from the Mets on shorter-term deals - it's a great investment for the 34-41 Mets, who are in 4th place, fourteen games behind Atlanta and eight out of the final Wild Card spot in the National League despite the largest payroll in baseball history. 

Speculation is that Shohei Ohtani would get more than $500 million and an AAV of more than $50M, both of which would be records, and it'd probably be deserved - he's essentially a Top 5 hitter and a Top 5 pitcher rolled into one player, so it makes sense that his contract would set records and still be cheaper than signing one of each in free agency (along with the extra roster spot you get by having one player than can do both jobs). 

Can the Atlanta Braves fit that into their payroll? 

We're not sure. The Atlanta Braves, owned by Liberty Media, are essentially restricted to only "spend what they make" - the Braves are treated as a separate business unit by Liberty Media (and in fact, Liberty's preparing to spin the Braves off as a separate business), and so the payroll is believed to be tied to team revenues. 

As a Braves fan, this is nice, because going to The Battery and attending games and buying merchandise is directly supporting the organization, but it also means that there's no deep pocketed billionaire (like Steven Cohen of the Mets) willing to come out of pocket to make a signing like this happen. 

For 2024, the Braves are currently - before factoring in arbitration salaries - projected to be spending $155M against a $327M projected luxury tax threshold, per Spotrac.

There's a few things Atlanta can do to minimize this number somewhat. 

For club options in 2024, Atlanta has a few they can decline to save money: Charlie Morton's is $20M, with Eddie Rosario getting $9M if exercised, Travis d'Arnaud getting $8M, and Collin McHugh ($6M) and Kirby Yates ($5.75M) would both be getting more than 3% of the payroll if exercised. 

Additionally, there's the Marcell Ozuna situation: He's owed $16M in the final year of his deal, and would quite literally not have a place to play if Shohei Ohtani were to come to Atlanta, so let's assume the Braves package a prospect with him so that someone takes his contract away. 

If you decline those options and move Ozuna, you can theoretically free up just under $75M in salary space. I'd recommend bringing back Travis d'Arnaud, actually, but even with him added back there's $67M there to sign Ohtani and find some cheap free agents to supplement/bring back some of the veterans who have played meaningful roles on this team and are pending free agents: Jesse Chavez, Kevin Pillar, etc. 

The hard part comes with arbitration salaries: Atlanta has a BIG arbitration crop in their pitching, and most of them are later on in the process. Max Fried is the biggest, on his fourth (and final) arbitration year and coming off of a $13.5M salary for 2023. Even with his injury absences this season, he's in line for a salary increase in 2024 because that's how this process works. Atlanta also has Michael Soroka (Arb 4), AJ Minter (Arb 4), Lucas Luetge (Arb 3), Nich Anderson (Arb 2), and Ian Anderson (Arb 1) all to get paid. 

You may keep some of these guys for 2024, but after is a question, especially in the case of Max Fried: If you sign Shohei Ohtani, Fried's almost definitely priced out of your free agency budget in 2025. And going forward, you're probably not coming out of pocket for any significant free agents, just early extensions of any talent you happen to develop out of MLB's #30-ranked farm system. Alex Anthopoulous would have to keep finding magic role players on the trade and free agency markets, like he did with Jesse Chavez, and Kevin Pillar, among others.      

But imagine, for one second: 

A rotation of Max Fried, Shohei Ohtani, Spencer Strider, Kyle Wright, and Bryce Elder. Oh, and Shohei Ohtani batting 3rd in the lineup, driving in Ronald Acuña Jr. 

That'd be entirely worth it, right? 

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