Which Braves Pitcher Gets the Opening Day Start, Max Fried or Spencer Strider?

The Atlanta Braves have a decision to make about who takes the mound for game one in Philadelphia

Lindsay Crosby | Feb 28, 2024

The Atlanta Braves don't have a lot of decisions to make this season. Not big ones, anyway.

We know the starting nine, with the biggest question being where you bat them in the order daily. We know four of the top five in the rotation, with the biggest question being 2023 All-Star Bryce Elder vs newcomer Reynaldo López (or the field) for the final spot in the rotation.

Oh, and the team still needs to decide on an Opening Day starter.

The Atlanta Braves have seen Max Fried get the ball in three consecutive Opening Day starts, going back to the 2021 season - Atlanta's 1-2 in those games, but two of the losses can't be blamed on Fried.

2021: Braves lose 2-3 at Philadelphia with Fried going five innings with six hits and two runs, walking two and striking out eight. Fried gets a no-decision.

2022: Braves lose 6-3 at Cincinnati with Fried allowing five runs on eight hits in 5.2 innings, with one walk and five strikeouts. Fried took the loss in this one.

2023: Braves win, 7-2, at Washington with Fried going only 3.1 innings with four hits and one run, walking none and notching two strikeouts. Fried's short outing was due to a mild hamstring strain that would knock him out of action for two weeks.

That short injured list stint would be an omen for Fried's 2024, with the lefty getting three different stints on the injured list and ultimately missing 121 days of the season owing to hamstring, forearm, and finger issues.

But Fried's absence opened the door for righthander Spencer Strider to take over as the #1 in the rotation for the year, a spot in which he excelled. Strider led all of baseball in several meaningful categories, including total strikeouts (281) and strikeout rate (13.5 K/9), wins (20) and winning percentage (.800), as well as leading the National League in FIP at 2.85. He made 32 starts, pitched 186.2 innings, and went 20-5 to be named an All-Star and finish in 4th place in the Cy Young voting.

So in 2024, does Atlanta go back to the Fried well or give the Opening Day start to Strider? Let's look at both options:

The case to start Max Fried on Opening Day

The argument here boils down to one thing: Tenure.

Fried's one of the longest tenured Braves, having been acquired in December of 2014 as a prospect from the San Diego Padres, who took him in the first round out of high school just two years earlier. Matter of fact, the only member of the 40-man roster that have been with the major league club longer than Fried is Ozzie Albies, who was signed as an international free agent in July of 2013 and debuted on August 1st, 2017. Fried debuted the next week, on August 8th.

(Ronald Acuña Jr was signed before Fried was acquired, joining the organization in July of 2014, but he didn't debut in the majors until April 2018.)

And as a reminder, Brian Snitker values veterans and usually defers to them when all things are equal. Last year's starter in left field on Opening Day wasn't Eddie Rosario or Kevin Pillar - it was actually Marcell Ozuna, who joined the organization prior to the 2020 season. This allowed Snit to both start newly-acquired Sean Murphy behind the plate and get veteran Travis d'Arnaud, who started at DH, in the lineup.

If Snitker deferred to the tenure of Fried when naming an Opening Day starter, it wouldn't be surprising.

The case to start Spencer Strider on Opening Day

Starting Strider on Opening Day comes down to dominance and maximizing potential production.

Similar to how moving Michael Harris II from the #9 spot to batting 2nd behind Ronald Acuña Jr can increase his plate appearances by almost 100 over a full season, throwing Strider on Opening Day potentially gives you the most opportunities to send him up as the starter over the course of the season.

Of the nine pitchers that made 33 or more starts last season, seven of them were their team's Opening Day starter:

Pitcher	First start?	Total number of starts	Innings pitched	ERA
Miles Mikolas, STL	Opening Day	35	201.1	4.78
Zac Gallen, ARI	Opening Day	34	210.0	3.47
Chris Bassitt, TOR	Game Three	33	200.0	3.60
Luis Castillo, SEA	Opening Day	33	197.0	3.34
Dylan Cease, CHW	Opening Day	33	177.0	4.58
Gerrit Cole, NYY	Opening Day	33	209.0	2.63
Kyle Gibson, BAL	Opening Day	33	192.0	4.73
Lucas Giolito, multiple	Game Three	33	184.1	4.88
Logan Webb	Opening Day	33	216.0	3.25

It's the same idea here: If you think Strider can be the most dominant pitcher in MLB in 2024 - and him being the hands-down favorite for NL Cy Young means that this is not an unpopular opinion - then starting him on Opening Day maximizes the opportunities he has to go out and dominate over the course of the regular season.

Do you adjust the rotation for Philly?

To answer a question that came up recently, it's unlikely that the fact that Atlanta plays the Philadelphia Phillies matters when it comes to choosing the Opening Day starter.

Side note: It's becoming tiresome how frequently MLB schedules Atlanta to open the season on the road, particularly in Philadelphia. In the last twenty years, Atlanta has opened the season away from home fifteen times, with five of those times specifically at Philadelphia. Surprisingly, Atlanta has had as many season openers IN Philadelphia as they've had at home during this period. Furthermore, since Truist Park opened in 2017, Atlanta has played more Opening Day games at Citizens Bank Park (three) than they've have at their home stadium (two).

For starters, whoever doesn't pitch in game one will pitch in game two. In fact, the bigger question to me is do you throw the lefty Sale for game three in Philadelphia, or let veteran Charlie Morton pitch in his usual #3 spot and save Sale for game four? That'd give Sale an opportunity to pitch in Chicago versus the White Sox, the team that drafted him in 2010 and where he spent the first seven years of his career before being traded after the 2016 season.