Why does Spencer Strider struggle with bad teams?

The Braves hurler has significantly better performance against teams over .500 than teams below, and it's not immediately obvious why

Atlanta Braves righthander Spencer Strider is the very example of a modern, analytically-smart pitcher. Recovering from Tommy John surgery in 2019, he set out to recreate himself as a pitcher, to both minimize injury risk and increase his effectiveness.  

Strider's research focused on similar pitchers to him in stature and how they were effective, borrowing aspects from similar-framed pitchers such as Trevor Bauer (6-1, 205) and others. 

And boy was he successful.

Despite his 6-ft frame, his 93rd percentile extension of 7.1 feet and low release point means that his already powerful fastball looks even faster when it gets to the plate, and it's got exceptional spin rates that help it resist the downward effects of gravity when he throws it up in the zone. The now-famous quad muscles, built with grueling hours in the gym, not only power the nickname of "Quadzilla" but also velocities that have reached 101 on the heater. 

The slider, as well, has been built for maximum effectiveness. It doesn't have outstanding break compared to some of the sweeping sliders currently en-vogue in baseball, but the results are some of the best in baseball: over 50% of swings on the pitch completely miss, one of the highest whiff rates for any single pitch in baseball. 

There's two things that Strider does differently than most pitchers with his slider: He throws a gyro slider, where the spin of the ball is more like a bullet, stabilizing it in flight and letting gravity provide the break. Also, he throws it from the same arm slot and release point as that amazing fastball, meaning they're indistinguishable out of the hand until they're halfway to the plate. 

And these two pitches combine to make Strider one of the best pitchers in baseball - he leads all of MLB in wins (16), strikeouts (250), and strikeout rate (13.9). He leads the National League in FIP - Fielding Independent Pitching, a version of ERA that adjusts for only what Strider can control (walks, strikeouts, and homeruns) - with a 2.89. 

But there's an unique quirk to Strider's dominance this season...

Strider's not nearly as dominant against bad teams

Using baseball reference to pull splits, he's pitched 17 games against teams with a record over .500. In those 17 games, covering 106 innings, he has a 2.63 ERA & 2.23 FIP with 168 strikeouts, a 40.8% strikeout rate. Opposing hitters are batting .182/.238/.310 against him, and he strikes out seven batters for each walk he gives up, on average, with only 24 base-on-balls. 

But if the team's below .500? That's a different story. 

In those 11 games, Strider has a 6.11 ERA and 4.14 FIP in 56 innings with 82 strikeouts, a 32.9% strikeout rate. Still a great strikeout rate, but noticeably lower. He's allowing opposing hitters to bat .253/.349/.442 and strikes out just under three batters (2.9) for each walk allowed, with 28 base-on-balls in those 56 innings.  

Here's a handy chart to look at it side by side: 

Losing record		Winning record
11	Games	17
56	Innings	106
6.11	ERA	2.63
4.14	FIP	2.23
82 / 32.9%	Strikeouts/rate	168 / 40.8%
28	Walks	24
.253/.349/.442	Opposing slashline	.182/.238/.310
2.9 K/BB	Strikeout to Walk rate	7.0 K/BB

Weird, right? 

Why does Strider struggle against bad teams? 

I don't know, but there's a few possible explanations. 

The first one is mental. Strider told the media after beating the Phillies earlier this season that it wasn't anything personal with the Phillies - he doesn't like any opponents. 

"I want to beat everybody. I dislike every opponent equally. No offense to them, but that's how you've got to play the game. If you're not wearing my jersey, then we're fighting for food."

But is it possible that he's subconsciously more engaged when he's anticipating a stiffer challenge from a winning team? It's possible, but not likely.

I think it's more in his pitch style. 

See, Strider knows that fastball is elite. And because of that, he's more willing to do something with it than most pitchers: Throw it right down the middle. 

Since the start of the 2022, Strider leads all of MLB with pitches thrown middle-middle, in Statcast zones 1-9, with 1041. It's a staggering 21% of his pitches thrown, and he averages 97.7 mph velocity on those center-cut fastballs.

MLB Statcast

And it's a fine line to walk - that fastball's designed to work up in the zone, not low in the zone. When it comes in higher than 2.75 feet off the ground, opponents are batting .175 with a 3.50 slugging. When it comes in at or below 2.75 feet, opponents are batting .303 with a .545 slugging. 

Some of this is control, which comes and go for each pitcher over the course of an inning or start.

But some of this might be opponent approach, too. It's entirely possible that a hitter on a bad team, who is probably coming up without a baserunner on or in a losing game, is more likely to sell out on that center-cut pitch than a batter coming up in a close game who needs to make sure he moves the runners over. 

If you're losing the game, you'll probably be willing to trade a potential strikeout on the slider for a home run off that fastball. What's the harm in being wrong? You're already losing. But on a contending team, in a close game, you can't afford to make that sacrifice. 

How do you fix this moving forward? 

I don't know that either, honestly. I'm sure the team's working on it, but it may just come down to location. 

Strider was frustrated with last night's short outing against the Cardinals, and alluded to not having great location in his postgame chat with the media. 

“I’ve got to figure out how to be effective when everything’s not lined up, where I don’t feel good, or they’re taking good swings or whatever it is. I’ve got to give us a chance to win, and I didn’t do it.”

Most of the hits off of Strider last night, including the 1st inning homerun by Paul Goldschmidt, were on fastballs in the middle or bottom of the zone. 

Manager Brian Snitker isn't too worried about the outing or the trend. 

"I think it’s just one of them learning-type things, as he’s navigating his first full year. Just had one of them days. They’re going to have them. He’ll learn from it, he’ll file it away, and be much better for what he just experienced."

And I guess if Snit's not worried, we shouldn't be either. 

But it's frustrating. 

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