Atlanta Braves at Risk Achieving Infamous Feat

The Atlanta Braves could go down in history for the wrong reasons if their bats don't wake up.

Atlanta Braves pitcher Chris Sale is having a season for the ages. He could win the pitching triple crown and Cy Young. / Jordan Godfree-Imagn Images

Let’s be honest here, the Atlanta Braves pitching staff was not expected to be anything special entering the 2024 season. They were an offensive-minded team that was good enough on the mound. 

Even with the offseason acquisitions, such as Chris Sale, this was a team with a middle-of-the-pack pitching staff. 

Then, everything just clicked. Suddenly, this team had the most dominant pitching staff in baseball. At the time of this article's publishing, here are where the Braves rank among some key pitching stats. Note that this is all of Major League Baseball, not just the National League. 

• ERA: T-1st (3.51) 
• FIP: 1st (3.46)
• ERA+: 1st (119) 
• Strikeouts: 1st (1,379)
• fWAR: 1st (21.1)  
• WHIP: 6th (1.21)

The starting pitchers average 5.6 innings per start, the third highest in the Majors. Their closer, Raisel Iglesias, has a 1.18 ERA. 

It’s a lethal staff that’s become their saving grace all season. There’s just one issue. If the playoffs started today, this pitching staff would be watching the playoffs from the couch. 

They’re one-game back of the third wild card spot and oh so close to even the top wild card spot at just two and a half games. Injuries and underperforming bats have been costly to the team this season. 

Let’s compare the Opening Day lineup to the one that lost 1-0 to the Cincinnati Reds on Monday night. 

Opening Day:

1. Ronald Acuna Jr. RF
2. Ozzie Albies 2B
3. Austin Riley 3B
4. Matt Olson 1B
5. Marcell Ozuna DH 
6. Michael Harris II CF
7. Sean Murphy C
8. Orlando Arcia SS
9. Jarred Kelenic LF

Monday, Sept. 9 vs. Reds:

1. Michael Harris CF (healthy now but missed two months)
2. Jorge Soler RF
3. Marcell Ozuna DH
4. Matt Olson 1B
5. Sean Murphy C
6. Jarred Kelenic LF
7. Gio Urhsela 3B
8. Orlando Arcia SS
9. Luke Williams 2B

And this is the lineup after other replacement players have gotten hurt. Even the ones who have stuck around most of the year haven’t looked like their usual selves. 

Arcia, Olson and Adam Duvall have been around all season, but have seen dips in their production compared to the year before. When healthy, Murphy and Harris have been the same way. 

There are two key components to a World Series contender: strong pitching, especially starting pitching, and timely hitting.

That first component is good to go. If they get into the postseason, they’re going to be nearly untouchable. But that second part is far from where it needs to be.  

This is a team that has shut out 14 teams, tied for the most in baseball. However, they have been shut down 10 times and lost three of those 1-0. Win just those three and they would have the first wild card right now. 

That’s how small the margins are for being in the postseason and yet the Braves are still finding themselves short. 

We might be witnessing a historic level of falling flat. A team that leads the league in this many categories missing the playoffs hasn’t been seen in a long time. A team that leads the league in this many categories doesn’t happen very often to begin with.

The most recent team to achieve this feat was the 2017 Cleveland Indians. They didn’t win the World Series, but they at least made the playoffs. 

The closest example of a team that missed the playoffs with such a strong pitching staff was the 2003 Dodgers. They led MLB in ERA, ERA+, FIP, and were second in fWAR and third in strikeouts. However, they didn’t have the offense to miss the playoffs. 

After going back over 20 years, only a close enough example could be found. The Braves pitching has been that uniquely good. 

If they miss the playoffs, it would be a historic postseason miss, and quite frankly, it’s a huge shame it’s even a possibility that it can happen.