Atlanta Braves Playoff Odds After Walk-Off Win

The Atlanta Braves are in complete control of their destiny heading into Sunday's finale with the Kansas City Royals.

It's the Atlanta Braves playoff spot to lose the rest of the way. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images / Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

The Atlanta Braves walked it off to beat the Kansas City Royals 2-1 on Saturday. As cliché as it is to say, they are in full control of their destiny.

Here's the breakdown of their chances as the final weekend of the MLB regular season comes to a close.

Clinching Scenarios

It's pretty simple. If they win on Sunday, they're in the playoffs. Even if they don't win, they still get in if the Arizona Diamondbacks lose to the San Diego Padres.

The Braves have the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks, who play their last game of the season on Sunday. Any situation besides the Braves losing and the Diamondbacks winning puts the Braves in the playoffs.

Bonus info: Here's a scenario in which there could be no need for a doubleheader on Monday. The Mets have the tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks as well. If the Mets win and the Diamondbacks lose, the Mets make the playoffs.

NOTE: The Braves and Mets could still play on Monday to decide seeding if they both win on Sunday. Even then, if the Braves win the first game of the doubleheader in this scenario, the second game would be unneccesary.

That's if both the Braves and Mets win tomorrow. That's how they would avoid playing the doubleheader, since both have the tiebreaker over Arizona. https://t.co/uWyveUAiie

— David O'Brien (@DOBrienATL) September 29, 2024

Braves Essentially a Lock to Clinch

The odds are so strongly in the Braves' favor that FanGraphs gave them a 100% chance to make the playoffs. Yes, this is even though they haven't officially clinched yet.

Some of you guys are going to just roll with it, but others are wondering how that works. In theory, it shouldn't be 100% if the can still miss the playoffs. FanGraphs calculations are done by running 10,000 simulations of the remaining schedule.

"All of the numbers are self explanatory except for the “percentage chances,” which indicate the percentage of the 10,000 simulations in which the event occurred," the FanGraphs website said.

This means all 10,000 simunlations had the Braves making the playoffs. Not too shabby.

Meanwhile, the Mets have a 76.6% to make the playoffs and the Diamondbacks have a 23.4% chance to make the playoffs.

So, there you have it. They have the odds and tiebreakers in their favor. All they have to do is keep the foot on the gas.

The Braves play the Kansas City Royals on Sunday for the series finally. Charlie Morton will be on the mound for the Braves. First pitch is set for 3:20 p.m.