Projecting Braves' Chances in Corbin Burnes Sweepstakes

How likely is it that the Atlanta Braves will pursue signing right-handed starter Corbin Burnes?

Baltimore Orioles pitcher Corbin Burnes / Tommy Gilligan-Imagn Images

It's the time of year on the baseball calendar when one tends to never say never. But there are probably still situations where one should say never.

That seems to be the proper summary with the Atlanta Braves potentially being involved in signing ace starting pitcher Corbin Burnes.

Bleacher Report's Kerry Miller placed all 30 MLB teams into different tiers, labeling each one with the likely possibility that they sign Burnes. Miller placed the Braves in the "willing to spend, but might have a hard time justifying $200 million-plus for Burnes."

Out of the 30 MLB teams, Miller ranked the Braves' chances of signing Burnes at No. 13.

"Cleared some room in the payroll by trading away Jorge Soler and declining a couple of club options, but they're still top five in projected payroll and have never been the 'throw heaps of cash at free agents' type, maxing out at a $75.25M signing of B.J. Upton over a decade ago. They'll be active, per usual, but probably not in one fell swoop like this," wrote Miller.

MLB.com's Mark Feinsand wrote on Nov. 15 that Burnes "figures to be seeking at least a six-year contract" worth between $175-$200 million. If the market sets Burnes' value on the lower end of that range, perhaps some of the teams in Miller's "hard time justifying $200 million-plus for Burnes" will enter the sweepstakes.

Then again, the more teams involved in the sweepstakes, the more likely the price for Burnes will go up.

Burnes won the National League Cy Young award with the Milwaukee Brewers in 2021. This past season, he went 15-9 with a 2.92 ERA, 1.096 WHIP and 181 strikeouts in 194.1 innings with the Baltimore Orioles.

On Tuesday, Miller ranked the Orioles, Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants the top five suitors for Burnes.

Our staff at Sports Illustrated agreed with Miller's take on the likelihood the Braves target and sign Burnes this offseason. It's a never say never situation but, more than likely, it's never going to happen.

Atlanta should be significant players in free agency this offseason. But the Braves are probably not going to be heavily involved in courting Burnes.