Braves Projected to Buy Low on Ex-World Series Champion Starter

The Athletic's Jim Bowden predicted the Atlanta Braves to trade for a starting pitcher this offseason.

Arizona Diamondbacks starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery / Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images

The Atlanta Braves acquired right-handed pitcher Griffin Canning for outfielder Jorge Soler this week. The Athletic's Jim Bowden argued it won't be the only trade the Braves make for their pitching staff this offseason.

On November 1, Bowden released a list of 25 predictions he has for the 2024-25 MLB offseason. At No. 16, he projected the Braves to trade two minor-league pitchers to the Arizona Diamondbacks for left-hander Jordan Montgomery.

"After exercising his $22.5 million player option, Jordan Montgomery is traded by the Diamondbacks to the Braves for two minor-league pitchers, with Arizona agreeing to pay half of his salary," wrote Bowden.

Montgomery could a buy-low candidate on the MLB trade market this offseason because he struggled mightily in his first season with Arizona. Although he posted an 8-7 record, he registered a 6.23 ERA and 1.65 WHIP with only 83 strikeouts in 117 innings across 25 appearances in 2024. Of those appearances, 21 of them were starts.

The 31-year-old struggled last season after he helped the Texas Rangers win the 2023 World Series, ironically against the Diamondbacks. He went 4-2 with a 2.79 ERA during 11 regular season starts for Texas after the 2023 trade deadline. He also won both of his starts in the American League championship series.

After that dominance, the Diamondbacks signed him to a 1-year, $25 million deal with a player option for 2025. His player option will be $22.5 million next season.

It's a no-brainer for Montgomery to accepted his player option since he won't receive nearly that amount of money on the open market after his disappointing 2024. So, the Diamondbacks will have to accept him back into their rotation or trade him for pennies on the dollar.

Put another way -- the Diamondbacks will need to promise to pay a lot of the pennies on Montgomery's player option for another team to accept him in a trade.

Montgomery would be a reclamation project for the Braves. But the left-hander's home and away splits indicate he could benefit from a new set of surroundings.

In 2024, Montgomery pitched significantly better on the road than at the hitter-friendly Chase Field in Phoenix. During away games, he had a 5.50 ERA and 1.419 WHIP in 11 appearances versus a 6.90 ERA and 1.859 WHIP in 14 games at home.

Granted, his away numbers are far from stellar. But he made road starts at Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Colorado and Milwaukee this past year. All of those teams have stadiums famous for being very hitter friendly.

The Braves could bet on Montgomery rebounding next season away from the NL West. It's a bet worth entertaining if the Braves could add him without giving up a MLB player, and the Diamondbacks pay half his salary.