Baseball Prospectus releases Top 101 prospect list with surprising Braves inclusions...and exclusions
The Atlanta Braves have a minor league system dominated by pitching prospects. And if you think about it, that makes sense - Atlanta has all their defensive positions on the field locked up for at least the next three seasons, with contractual control over some of those stretching into the next decade.
And so the strength of the system is pitching. But the right order for those pitching prospects is up for debate, and Baseball Prospectus has given us a new topic to discuss.
In their Top 101 Prospects rankings that dropped on Tuesday morning, the Braves have two players ranked amongst the best in baseball...just not the two you're thinking of.
RHP Hurston Waldrep, the first rounder out of the University of Florida in the 2023 MLB Draft, is #1 on their board for Braves prospects, coming in at #30 overall.
Behind him, at #98, is a position player - SS Ignacio Alvarez.
And more notable is who wasn't ranked.
The obvious missing piece here is RHP AJ Smith-Shawver, who we actually have as the organization's #1 pitching prospect on our prospect rankings from last fall.
I reached out to senior prospect writer Jarred Seidler, a professional acquaintance, to ask about the placement of the Braves players and get some info on BP's thought process behind leaving Smith-Shawver off of their top 101. Here's what he sent over to me:
He would have been in the 110s if we had kept ranking out. I think his pitch characteristics are very very far behind Waldrep and it’s kind of a weird profile because it’s arm speed plus command except his fastball doesn’t miss bats and he walked way more guys than he should’ve.
It's hard to argue with Seidler's observations - Smith-Shawver's newer to pitching and has plenty of development left to go. (Additionally, Waldrep's pitch characteristics are so far ahead of the "normal" 2023 draftee that this is more a credit to Waldrep than a detriment to Smith-Shawver.)
But what Atlanta has in Smith-Shawver right now is still a very useful piece for the 2024 roster and someone that I'm going to be watching closely this upcoming season. To be as polished and talented as he is despite having only been pitching full-time for three years (he was a dual sport athlete in high school) shows that his natural talent level is off the charts. His athleticism is world class, with several outlets (including Baseball America) suggesting he's the best pure athlete in the entire farm system.
There's a reason we hoped Atlanta would not trade either of the two arms this offseason and instead allow them to develop and get major league experience, so they could enter the rotation full-time for 2025.
The ceilings are so absurdly high for both Hurston Waldrep and AJ Smith-Shawver that you could be looking at the next great Braves rotation once they're both alongside Spencer Strider.
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