Braves Have Invested Heavily in Prospect Pitching In Last Six Drafts

The Atlanta Braves continue to lean into their organizational strengths in the MLB Draft

The Atlanta Braves know what they're about. 

With a position player core that's locked up at every single position for at least three more seasons, the Braves have leaned into their organizational strength of developing pitching when it comes to the MLB Draft. 

So much, in fact, that they've devoted the highest percentage of their MLB Draft bonus pool to pitching of any MLB team since 2018. 

Per new research done by independent Red Sox-focused outlet Sox Prospects and their Director of Scouting, Ian Cundall, Atlanta's devoted the highest percentage of their combined MLB Draft bonus pools to pitching of any team in baseball from 2018-2023, sitting at 61%. 

But because of their success on the field, which pushes back their draft position accordingly, that large distribution hasn't translated to them being highest in sheer dollars, coming in "only" 7th at just over $30M. 

How MLB Draft bonuses work

MLB Draft bonus pools are set by the "slot value", or assigned value, of each draft pick within the first ten rounds of the draft, added together. Earlier picks are worth more slot value than later picks, and the picks towards the front of the first round are significant, dropping quickly throughout the first round. 

In 2023, the #1 overall pick, held by the Pittsburgh Pirates, had an assigned slot value of $9.72M. Pick #2 was in the same ballpark, with the Washington Nationals having a $9M slot value, but the pick 13 the slot was "only" $4.85M for the Chicago Cubs. Atlanta's pick, at #24 overall, was assigned a slot value of $3.27M. 

During this sample, Atlanta's picked 9th and 21st (2019), 25th (2020), 24th (2021), 20th & 35th (2022), and 24th (2023), so all of those later picks had significantly lower slot values than the top of the first round. 

(The Braves selected Carter Stewart at #8 overall in 2018, but he did not sign and so Atlanta's bonus pool was reduced by that slot value, which also explains why Atlanta had two first round picks in 2019. The additional draft pick in 2022 was acquired in a trade with the Kansas City Royals, for outfielder Drew Waters and two other players.)

Each signing within the first ten rounds is added up and counted against the total bonus pool, with overages allowed of up to 5% before penalties are levied. (Teams virtually never exceed a 5% overage.) Additionally, any signings after the 10th round do not count against your pool unless the bonus amount given exceeds $125k, and then only the amount of the overage applies against your total pool amount. 

Focusing on pitching isn't unusual 

It's standard for teams to draft more pitching than hitting - over the sample, 27 of 30 MLB teams selected more arms than bats. But again, it's the significant skew towards paying for pitching that's significant, with Atlanta the only team to go over 60% pitching from a bonus allocation perspective in the sample.

Most teams draft more pitching but pay, on average, less for it than they do hitting. Only nine teams paid more than 50% of their bonuses during this sample to pitching, with only Atlanta exceeding 60%, despite almost every team (27 of 30) drafting more pitchers from a sheer player count than hitters. 

So Atlanta's in the sweet spot of not only drafting more pitching, but also paying more to those players than average. 

But Atlanta's right to pay more for it

With the Braves having a completely locked in position player core - the first defensive regular that will hit free agency (assuming club options are picked up) is shortstop Orlando Arcia after the 2026 season, with Ozzie Albies a free agent after 2027 and Ronald Acuña Jr's current contract and option years wrapping up after 2028 - it makes sense to focus on arms. 

The Braves went overslot last year on their 2nd rounder, Drue Hackenberg (who had the ability to return to college for his junior year) and their 4th and 6th round prep pitchers, Garrett Baumann and Lucas Braun. It was a similar situation in 2022, with the Braves going overslot for the prep duo of JR Ritchie (1st round) and Seth Keller (6th), as well as collegian Adam Maier (7th round), who could have returned to Oregon for his senior season. 2021's most prominent overslot signing was AJ Smith-Shawver, who received 2nd-round money ($997.5k) to sign in the 7th round, where the slot value was only $201.6k. 

Instead, we've seen Atlanta be more willing to pay for hitters in international free agency, paying top of the market bonuses in each of the last three signing cycles to bring in shortstop Jose Perdomo (2024, $5M), outfielder Luis Guanipa (2023, $2.5M), and shortstop Diego Benitez (2022, $2.5M). But the team has gone overslot in the draft for specific position players that fit that same high risk, high reward calculus in prep outfielder Isaiah Drake (2023, $747.5k) and prep infielder Vaughn Grissom (2019 $347.5k. 

And it's seemingly the right move to not pay for international pitching - of the 28 pitchers that were worth three or more fWAR last season, 23 were drafted, four were international free agents, and one was a foreign professional (Kodai Senga of the Mets). And of the current Baseball America Top 100 prospects list, only one pitcher - Oakland's Luis Morales - was a international free agent. 

The full, Boston Red Sox-focused piece is available at SoxProspects.com. 

Who is Atlanta's #1 prospect, AJ Smith-Shawver or Hurston Waldrep?

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