Who will be Atlanta's #1 prospect after the 2024 season?

Looking at the Atlanta Braves farm system, it's a surprisingly hard question to answer

The Atlanta Braves, while not known for having a great farm system, have a plethora of pitching talent that is poised to impact the major league roster in the coming seasons. 

And that's what makes evaluations of the future of the farm system, including who might be next season's #1 prospect, so difficult. 

Baseball America, fresh off of the heels of releasing Atlanta's Top 30 Prospect list ($) where they named RHP AJ Smith-Shawver the current #1 prospect, decided to tackle that question for all thirty teams. And the answer for the Braves is surprising. 

Odds are, it's not who you think it is

When giving percentage odds for which player is #1 at this time next season, the two highest percentages don't actually have a name attached to it, with Baseball America speculating that either the team's 2024 1st rounder (30%) or someone farther down in the system ("The Field", at 25%), would actually be the choice. 

That uncertainty stems from the ambiguity behind 2023 1st rounder Hurston Waldrep's role at the major league level in 2024. Given a 15% chance of being the #1 prospect, the BA Staff acknowledge that there's a really good chance that he doesn't have prospect eligibility at this time next season, meaning he would have pitched (by their eligibility criteria) either fifty major league innings or made thirty appearances during the 2024 season. 

Waldrep, who led all 2023 draftees in strikeouts after the draft with 41 punchouts in 29.1 professional innings, is considered to have the requisite polish on his fastball/splitter combo to contribute at the major league level as soon as Opening Day. Debuting in Single-A Augusta after the draft, he climbed all the way to AAA Gwinnett for his final start before the end of the season, and his combined 131 innings between Florida and MLB last season give hope that he's ready for a significant major league workload as soon as this season. 

Who else is under consideration? 

After Waldrep, Baseball America puts odds on three other young players, with RHPs JR Ritchie and Owen Murphy, as well as new international signee SS Jose Perdomo, all receiving 10% odds. 

It's not as clear cut between these three, especially when compared to some other farm systems, who might elevate to the #1 spot after the 2024 season. The BA Staff notes that they might all rise into the Top 100 prospects list with a good season, but there's also reasons for pause. 

For Ritchie, it's his health. Suffering a grade two tear of the UCL in his right elbow last May, he's undergone Tommy John surgery and is not expected back onto the mound until later this summer. Recovery from TJ, while more of a familiar process than in previous years, still is in no way guaranteed and any sort of setback in the timing of his return or in his performance would prevent him from ascending to the #1 spot. 

For Murphy, there's questions about the quality of his "stuff". Despite being listed at 6'1, 190, he looks smaller in person, and the velocity of his fastball in particular, sitting in the low 90s, isn't where you typically expect a potential #1 prospect's velo to sit. Now, being only 20 years old, there's still plenty of physical development to come for Ritchie, but it's not a clear-cut case for the #1 spot. 

And for the newest signing, Perdomo, there's even more questions. Only seventeen years old, he won't debut in the Dominican Summer League until this spring. Having not seen him in competition, combined with his significant distance from the major leagues (which is a factor in Baseball America's rankings), leads him to come in at only 10% odds of taking the top spot at this time next year. 

What do you think? Who has the best chance of becoming the organization's #1 prospect at this time next season? Let us know!  

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