Why AJ Smith-Shawver’s Oblique Injury Might Ultimately Be a Good Thing

The Atlanta Braves can find a way to limit the young phenom's workload and keep him fresh for both the stretch run and October.

Atlanta Braves pitcher AJ Smith-Shawver (32) pitches against the Chicago Cubs during the first inning at Wrigley Field. / David Banks-USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Braves have a lot of promising pitching prospects, maybe none more so than AJ Smith-Shawver. 

The young righthander pitched four and a third scoreless innings in his 2024 debut yesterday, flummoxing the Chicago Cubs hitters with his upper-90s fastball and a dramatically improved changeup that got him two strikeouts in the first inning alone and generated three of his nine whiffs in the game. A lot of the postgame discussion was whether or not he’d earned another start next week, with the consensus being that be had, as his ceiling was higher than either the previous 5th starter (Bryce Elder) or any of the other options in Triple-A Gwinnett. 

But talk of Smith-Shawver’s next start went on the back burner on Friday morning with the news that he’d been placed on the injured list with a strained left oblique. He’ll be out for a minimum of fifteen days, although the team has not disclosed the severity of the injury. 

It could be a good thing, in the end. 

Smith-Shawver was considered a promising rotation candidate entering the 2024 season. The reason he didn’t get a major league starting job after spring training came down to two factors: veteran options ahead of him in Atlanta and workload concerns. 

As a multi-sport prep draftee who didn’t become a full-time pitcher until becoming the 7th-round pick of Atlanta in the 2021 MLB Draft, Smith-Shawver wasn’t working off a long history of baseball experience. Because of that, he’s never put up MLB-level innings counts in his baseball career. He threw 8.1 innings after being drafted, all in rookie ball, and then 68.2 innings in Single-A August in 2022 and a combined ninety innings in 2023 between the minors (62 IP), the majors (25.1), and the postseason (2.2). 

(By contrast, Atlanta’s first-round pick last season, Hurston Waldrep, threw a combined 131 innings last season between college and the minor leagues, while Bryce Elder’s first full season in the majors saw him throw a combined 177 innings and he noticeably wore down late in the year.) 

So as promising as his 2024 debut was yesterday - 4.1 scoreless innings with four strikeouts, allowing only three hits and walking two - it’s an open question as to how long Smith-Shawver could stay in the rotation and pitch every fifth (or sixth) day. Combining his time in Gwinnett this season (31 IP) with yesterday’s start, he’s already at 35.1 innings and if you assume a max workload increase of fifty innings, he’s already looking at only about 100 left for the 2024 season. 

There’s potentially a solution here - send him back to the minor leagues. The Miami Marlins did that last season with rookie phenom Eury Perez and are doing it now with promising youngster Max Meyer. Both pitchers were given reduced pitch counts in Triple-A, with Perez being called back up mid-season and Meyer still toiling away for the Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp. 

It’s just not proven to work. Perez is currently out after needing Tommy John surgery this spring. 

No, this injured list placement might end up working out better for Smith-Shawver. If the injury is minor - and all indications are that it probably is, as he was throwing 98 mph in his final inning of work before leaving the game - then a few weeks off from competition before ramping back up sometime in late June might be more beneficial than giving him additional rest and artificially reduced workloads in the minors. It’ll also allow him to spend more of those “bullets” in the major leagues, where he can contribute to the team’s success, rather than toiling away in what are essentially meaningless minor league games, in the grand scheme of things. 

With the injury to veteran Spencer Strider, who is out for the year after elbow surgery, Atlanta has an opening for an additional postseason starter when they reach October. If Smith-Shawver is handled correctly during the regular season, he’s shown the caliber of stuff to be a contributor in October.