Multiple 2024 Mock Drafts Send Same College Slugger to Atlanta

Multiple reputable prospect outlets have mocked the same college outfielder to the Atlanta Braves at pick #24.

Kentucky's Ryan Waldschmidt (21) beats the throw as he slides home to score against Louisville during their game at Patterson Stadium in Louisville, Ky. on Apr. 16, 2024. / Sam Upshaw Jr./Courier Journal / USA

Have the Atlanta Braves let something slip to the media? 

The Braves are an organization that likes to commit MLB Draft bonus dollars to pitching prospects - so much, in fact, that they’re the only team to pay over 60% of their available bonus pool to pitching prospects across the last six drafts (2018-2023), finishing at 61%. 

(Owing to the varying amounts of available dollars based on draft position, that league-leading percentage only translates to being 7th in total dollars, with Atlanta sitting at just over $30M to pitchers.)

This commitment to pitching can be seen in several of the most recent drafts - you have to go back to 2019 to find a first-round pick for Atlanta that’s a position player, and you’ll actually find two that year: catcher Shea Langeliers out of Baylor, taken at pick #9, and shortstop Braden Shewmake out of Texas A&M, taken at pick #21. Both players have since been traded, Langeliers to the Oakland Athletics (Matt Olson deal) and Shewmake to the Chicago White Sox (Aaron Bummer deal).  

So it’s interesting that two different mock drafts - one from ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel and one from Baseball America - have Atlanta taking the same player this summer at pick #24: Kentucky outfielder Ryan Waldschmidt. 

McDaniel discussed the offensive pedigree of the leftfielder in explaining the fit for Atlanta: 

Waldschmidt is another late riser in the SEC, with some of the best underlying TrackMan data in the country, right there with the hitters going in the top 10 picks. He's perceived to fit more with numbers-oriented clubs, and there's a lot of those in the back half of the first round. Benge, Cijntje, Sanford and Doughty are all heavily tied to Atlanta.

(Those other players McDaniel mentions are Oklahoma State centerfielder Carson Benge, Mississippi State ambidextrous pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje, prep shortstop Wyatt Sanford, and prep righthander Braylon Doughty.)

Baseball America goes into further detail on the TrackMan numbers that McDaniel teased in his write-up: 

The late-rising data darling of the class, Waldschmidt is a polarizing player but one who is getting first-round chatter. He’s a powerfully built, muscular left fielder who slashed .357/.487/.654 with 13 home runs, 16 doubles, a 15.7% strikeout rate and 14% walk rate. Waldschmidt is one of six D-I hitters to meet the following batted ball data thresholds this season: 

• Contact rate above 80%
• Chase rate below 20%
• 90th-percentile EV above 108 mph

The mention of the “polarizing” profile of Waldschmidt refers to his injury history, defensive profile, and streakiness at the plate. Wasldschmidt tore an ACL while playing in the Cape Cod League last summer, an injury that held him out of defensive action for the early part of the 2024 season. He also suffered a serious arm injury as a prep, being forced to DH for a full year after a collision at home plate his freshman season. 

Opinions are mixed on his defensive future. At his best, scouts believe he had a chance of sticking in centerfield, but most evaluators we’ve talked to feel that his future is in leftfield. His arm is considered below-average, something that required him to move from third base to the outfield when he transferred from the College of Charleston to Kentucky after the 2022 collegiate season. Owing to that inexperience in the outfield, he also plays unsure at times, with improvements needed in his reads, routes, and reactions in left field.

The streakiness of his offense is something that Kentucky’s felt in their win-loss record. In games that Kentucky won this season where Waldschmidt started at leadoff, he was 55-131 (a .420 average) with 11 homers, 14 doubles, and 17 stolen bases. In games they lost under the same conditions, he was just 11-52 (.212 average) with two homers, one double, and five stolen bases. 

In last week’s SEC Tournament, his only hits came in the one game that Kentucky won out of the three they played. He hit two homers and drove in three runs in the Wildcats’ 9-6 victory over Arkansas, but was hitless in their two losses in Hoover.

But on the whole, Waldschmidt performed in the toughest conference in amateur baseball, putting up a .357/.487/.654 full-season line with thirteen homers and twenty-three stolen bases. He’d be a high-ceiling corner outfield option for Atlanta if they go outside of type at pick #24.