Braves Fall to Second Place in NL East For First Time in Over a Year

The Atlanta Braves have been more good than great recently, prompting a change in the divisional standings for the first time since last April

Atlanta Braves first baseman Matt Olson is mired in a slump right now, batting only .198 with a career-worst .369 slugging percentage / Sam Navarro-USA TODAY Sports

The Atlanta Braves have had an amazing run of success in the National League East. 

The Braves have won six consecutive divisional titles - not as impressive a streak as when they won fourteen straight divisional titles from 1991-2005 (excluding the strike-shortened 1994 season), but still impressive in this modern era of baseball. 

That makes what happened last night even more surprising: For the first time since April 2nd of 2023, the Atlanta Braves are not leading the NL East. 

With Atlanta’s 4-3 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers in eleven innings, combined with the Philadelphia Phillies continuing their hot start with a 4-3 win over the San Francisco Giants last night, means that Philadelphia’s 22-11 record is good for a half-game lead over the Braves (20-10) in the NL East. 

The Phillies are 7-3 in their last ten games, one game better than Atlanta’s 6-4. But is their 22-11 record for real? Let’s look at it. 

Overperformance in one-run games

The 2023 Miami Marlins had a negative-57 run differential on the season, one befitting a team that would have actually gone 75-87. 

Yet they had a winning record (84-78) and made the playoffs as a Wild Card team on their strength in one-run games, where they went an absurd 33-14. We’ve already seen that lack of run scoring (-61 run diff) come back to bite Miami this season, as they’re just 9-25 and solidly mired in a 13.5-game hole in the NL East. 

But Philly’s taken the luck away from last year’s Miami team, with the Phillies currently at an absurd 7-2 in one-run games so far in 2024. 

As much as Miami overachieved and, honestly, got lucky in those situations last season, however, this feels more sustainable on Philly’s part. As anyone who watched this team in the last two postseasons understands, this team just somehow has that “clutch” gene, one that can’t be quantified or explained by analytics. They’re batting .288/.371/.475 with runners in scoring position and .291 in RISP situations with two outs, while the team batting average skyrockets to .318 (with an amazing .529 slug) in tied ball games.  

While a .778 winning percentage likely won’t maintain all season for the Phillies, I wouldn’t assume they’ll drop down to being even average in the category. There’s just something different about that team. 

The perks of an amazing rotation

It’s not exactly a completely undiscussed story, but there are not a lot of fans across baseball who understand exactly how good the Philadelphia rotation has been this season. 

Phillies starters are 16-7 in their 33 games with a 2.54 ERA, good for the 2nd-best mark in baseball. Two Philly starters are in the top ten for ERA, with Ranger Suárez at 1.32 (2nd-best) and Zack Wheeler at 1.91 (8th-best). Spencer Turnbull would be in the top ten with his 1.67 if he had enough innings to qualify for league leaderboards. Aaron Nola would be in the list if not for a first-start blowup against Atlanta, with the Braves tagging him for seven runs (six earned) in 4.1 innings. Since that start, he’s pitched to a 2.31 ERA and a perfect 4-0 record, making it into the eighth inning in three straight outings; Philly has won all six of his starts since the Atlanta series.  

If the postseason started today, Philly could throw Zach Wheeler and Aaron Nola in games one and two and then pick and choose based on matchups for the next two games of the series. It’s a luxury that not many teams in baseball have, especially with the proliferation of severe pitcher injuries we’ve seen early in 2024. 

Power production has been there for Philly

For as much as Atlanta has struggled to hit homers this season, a surprising fact after they tied the single-season MLB record with 307 longballs last year, Philly has seemingly found their power stroke this season. 

Philadelphia has 40 homers on the season, good for 3rd-most in baseball, and their collective .408 slugging percentage is a top-six figure in the sport. (Notably, Atlanta is ahead of Philly in slugging with a team .425, good for 3rd-place, but Braves hitters have only 31 homers, one behind MLB average.  

They’re also doing their part to get runners in scoring position, with Philly’s 36 stolen bases good for fourth in baseball. And as we mentioned earlier, they’re good hitters with runners in scoring position, batting almost .300 in those situations. 

What does Atlanta do? 

Hopefully this serves as a wake-up call for the Braves hitters. Many of Atlanta’s sluggers, including the top-of-the-order trio of Ronald Acuña Jr, Austin Riley, and Matt Olson, are mired in uncharacteristic slumps at the same time. 

Manager Brian Snitker’s going to continue running them out there every day - we know that from how the team managed slumping designated hitter Marcell Ozuna last season, but also from Snitker’s words to the media prior to last night’s game: “Just keep running them out there, and eventually we’re going to get the offense going again.” 

How concerned are you that it's taking the #Braves offense this long to break out of their nearly team-wide slump? pic.twitter.com/LwhatHJjUy

— LockedOn_Braves (@LockedOn_Braves) May 4, 2024

Let’s see if it works.