Could The Atlanta Braves Trade For These Arms?

The Braves don't "need" to trade. But, if they did, here are some options.

The All-Star Break is officially over, and we know what that means. It is trade deadline season. The Atlanta Braves are in a fortunate position to where there are not many areas that they truly need to upgrade.

They lead the NL in both runs scored and team ERA. Needless to say, the Braves to have any “needs”. However, every team can conceivably upgrade if the price is right.

The Braves are currently on pace to score the most runs per game above league average in franchise history since 1897, so theoretically speaking, offense is most likely not a priority at the deadline.

The Braves also arguably have the best bullpen in the NL being first in fWAR, ERA, FIP, and WHIP. However, one could argue that they could still improve being fourth in xFIP and with the season being long it is inevitable that at least a few more injuries will happen.

In fact, we are pace for approximately 549 pitcher injuries. There have never been more than 489 in a season.

Max Fried looks to be coming back soon, and there is a possibility that Kyle Wright could also be back before the post-season. Even without these two key rotation arms, the Braves have been fourth in the NL in ERA. However they have been right in the middle of the pack in other areas such as being seventh in WHIP, and sixth in xFIP.

So, which area should the Braves prioritize?

No team is perfect, but the Braves are in a great position to succeed. However, how much are they willing to gamble on Fried and Wright coming back and being their 2022 versions of themselves? Bases on the offense and bullpen being tops in the NL, it points to the rotation being the easiest area to upgrade.

That being said, almost every competitive team will be looking to upgrade their rotation. With the expanded playoffs, and unexpected teams being competitive this year, there are currently nineteen teams within five games of a playoff spot.

This means that the number of teams that are potentially sellers is much smaller. Going back to Economics 101 with supply vs demand, this means that the cost for rotation arms is going to be high in prospect capital. The Braves have the worst-ranked farm in MLB, so their options will be limited.

The cost will be high because the options will be few. Of the 11 teams that are 5.5 or more games out of contention, there are just a handful of rental rotation arms (free agents this off-season) that could make sense for the Braves.

Knowing the Braves’ front office, they can pull off unexpected trades, but something we have not seen from them is trading for a MLB level starting pitcher with multiple years left on their contract. Unless a miracle happens, odds are that the Braves will stick with targeting rental arms when it comes to the rotation.

Jordan Montgomery

The odds that the Braves win a bidding war for Montgomery are slim, but at least kicking the tires on him makes a ton of sense. He is a free agent at the end of the year and financially would only cost the pro-rated amount of $10MM.

He is ninth in MLB in fWAR for starting pitchers and currently holds an ERA of 3.23. His issue though is that he has actually been a bit lucky with his xERA being much higher at 4.03. However, his 3.52 FIP is also lower than his xFIP of 3.81. However, these numbers would still be worth adding to the rotation, especially since it is a relatively low risk move.

Jack Flaherty

There is no getting around it, Flaherty has not been himself lately. He has pitched to an exactly league average ERA+ of 100 (4.27) with his xERA being even higher at 4.88. His fielding independent numbers are not promising either with a 4.01 FIP and xFIP of 4.45.

A lot of his struggles are due to him walking 4.88 hitters per nine innings which is the bottom 12.0 percent of MLB. He is limiting hard contact though, with his Hard Hit percentage being in the best 33.0 percent of the league and his ability to limit barrel percentage has been in the best 27.0 percent in the league. This has led to him only giving up 0.58 HRs per nine innings. For reference, no starter on the Braves has a HR/9 as low as Flaherty.

Flaherty’s value is at an all-time low and the Braves would only be on the hook for the pro-rated amount of $5MM.

Trades are about what you can do in the future, and not what you have done in the past, but if the Cardinals are willing to sell low and the Braves can turn him around, this could be a very low risk, high reward type move. This is Alex Anthopoulos’ specialty.

From 2018-2021, Flaherty was one of the most dominate pitchers in the league with a combined 3.21 ERA over 466.0 innings pitched. Braves fans probably remember him well for his start against them in game five of the NLDS in 2019 in which held them to one run and eight strikeouts.

Let’s look at a non-rental that the Braves me be able to get via trade

Paul Blackburn

Will the Braves and A’s reconnect on another trade? At first Blackburn does not seem appealing with his ERA of 4.50, but when you dig deeper you see that he has actually been unfortunate. He has only pitched in seven games so his ERA has been deceiving. In fact his xERA is much lower at 3.92 and his xFIP has been right on pace at 3.95.

Blackburn is not the type of guy that is going to be a staff ace for Atlanta, but for the pro-rated amount of $1.9MM, and is under team control through 2025.

His peripherals are also excellent. Hard Hit percentage is best 14.0 percent of MLB, Avg Exit Velocity is best 25.0 percent, barrel percentage is best 22.0 percent, and chase rate is best 13.0 percent.

If the cost is right, this trade could be the first SP the Braves go after that is under multiple years of control.

Honorable Mentions

Lucas Giolito has been brought up a lot in trades across social media, especially since the White Sox have no shot of winning a World Series this year and his contract runs out this season. However, he is arguably going to be the highest sought after trade piece this year, which is typically the type of player that the Braves do not go after.

Marcus Stroman would be a really fun player to add to the roster, but he is expensive finishing up his 2yrs/$50M contract and he still has a player option for next year. The Braves would have to give up a decent haul, plus pay his salary on top of it most likely with the way he is pitching, so the odds of landing him are close to zero.

Speaking of zero, that is exactly the odds of the Braves landing Ohtani, so do not get your hopes up.

If we are being honest Anthopoulos’ wizardry will probably result in a trade that none of us saw coming, or he may even not make a trade at all. One thing is for certain, we will be on the edge of our seats waiting to find out. 

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