Braves' Max Fried Predicted to Replace Corbin Burnes in Baltimore

Max Fried is predicted to stay in the East, but for a contender in the American League

Longtime Braves starter Max Fried could become the next ace of the Baltimore Orioles / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Free agent forecasting has begun and projections have Atlanta Braves star lefty Max Fried reading to the American League East. 

Bleacher Reports’ Joel Reuter predicts that Fried will take Corbin Burnes’ spot as the ace of the Baltimore Orioles. In a corresponding transaction, he has Burnes heading to the Los Angeles Dodgers. 

“If re-signing Burnes is still Plan A, making a run at Fried is a suitable Plan B,” Reuter wrote.

This prediction has some validity. On Thursday, MLB Insider Jon Heyman reported that the Orioles, along with fellow AL East contenders, the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays, are inter

The Orioles are in a similar position to the Braves beyond just having a key starter heading to free agency. They have potential in-house depth that could make for a solid rotation. However, when in win-now mode, it’s a bit of a dice roll to stick solely to those options. 

“They can't simply hope their in-house options are good enough,” Reuter wrote. 

Reuter also likes Fried over other top free-agent starters. He called Blake Snell a “boom-or-bust” type of pitcher. Then, he pointed out how Jack Flaherty didn’t work out in Baltimore. That leaves Fried as their top option to the chagrin of Braves Country. 

A healthy Fried would be a formidable successor to Burnes. In 29 starts, Fried finished with a 3.25 ERA, a 1.16 WHIP and 166 strikeouts in 174 1/3 innings. 

Both starters were all-stars last season and were considered aces of their respective stats. 

Since Burnes made 32 starts, we going to scale Fried’s numbers to the 32 starts to give a better idea of certain counting stats. 

Burnes stats: 181 strikeouts, 48 walks, 22 home runs allowed, 194 1/3 innings pitched 

Fried adjusted to 32 starts: 183 strikeouts, 62 walks, 14 home runs allowed, 192 1/3 innings pitched

While Fried’s walk rate is higher, his home run rate is lower and would provide a similar workload should he stay healthy for a full season. Even if he does not, this helps paint the picture of the type of production they’re getting on the mound.