Braves Today Mailbag: Is Marcell Ozuna going to get the Madison Bumgarner treatment?

Taking some time on the off-day to dive into pressing reader questions

The Atlanta Braves are off to one of the best starts to a season in their history - 14-4 is tied for the best performance in the first eighteen games since the franchise moved to Atlanta in 1966. The last two seasons, by contrast, they've been at 8-10 in the first eighteen games, and were 10.5 games back of the New York Mets at one point early last season. 

(How'd that work out for you, Sal?)

"THE NL EAST IS OVER" - @sal_licata on Baseball Night in New York pic.twitter.com/caPEQM4w6w

— SNY (@SNYtv) May 31, 2022

So, appropriately, the questions we got are all mostly upbeat, focusing on incremental changes and future tweaks to the roster and lineup, with one notable exception: Marcell Ozuna. 

Doing a mailbag is an ego-centric exercise, but I'm grateful for the questions. Let's get after it: 

Q. What are the Braves going to do about Marcell Ozuna? - Jerry, Alpharetta (amongst others)

Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

By far the most questions we got were about Marcell Ozuna. The 32 year-old slugger is batting .083 across 55 plate appearances, with two home runs and a double amongst his four hits. More distressingly, he's struck out fifteen times, and has overall accounted for a -0.8 WAR already. 

(By contrast, it took him 124 games and 507 plate appearances in 2022 to earn his -0.8 WAR)

Statcast has more blue than we're used to seeing from Ozuna, with his sprint speed and whiff rate all being in the lowest quartile in baseball and one of the worst weighted on-base averages in all of baseball at .203. 

The complicating factor (and the reason he's gotten the leash that he has) is that he's owed another $33M for the last two years of his four-year contract he signed after his 2020 Silver Slugger year + the buyout of the 2025 club option.

We saw the Arizona Diamondbacks designate struggling starter Madison Bumgarner for assignment just this morning, eating $35M of his remaining contract after he went 15-32 with a 5.32 ERA over his four seasons in Arizona. I think a similar outcome is likely for Ozuna - they obviously wanted to play him as much as possible in spring to either help him find his swing or, more likely, hope he got hot so they could trade him (The Braves reportedly tried to trade him for either Bumgarner or Patrick Corbin of the Nationals last year), but that plan obviously backfired. 

I'd expect Michael Harris II's return from the IL to be the earliest the Braves finally pull the plug on Ozuna, simply to keep both the hot-hitting Sam Hilliard and veteran Kevin Pillar on the roster. Hilliard and Rosario can platoon in left field, and when Orlando Arcia returns from his microfractured wrist, you may even see Vaughn Grissom in the mix as well.

Q: What's the plan for Vaughn Grissom when Orlando Arcia returns? - Will, Newnan

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

I alluded to it above, but I think he'll get his shortstop job back when he returns. He put up 0.8 WAR in just eight games thanks not only to his above-average defense, but a stellar bat - he was batting .333/.400/.511 when going on the IL. 

I think the most surprising aspect of Arcia's game has been the power. When he was a starter for the Brewers, he had some of the lowest slugging numbers in baseball, bottoming out at a .284 expected slugging in 2018. 

This year, the actual number's at .511 and the expected (xSLG) figure is .443. 

If Grissom's bat is hot when Arcia comes back (which, isn't a given, as our Will explained earlier today), I think you'll see Grissom work into the mix in the outfield. Austin Riley showed that spending part of a season in the outfield isn't going to hurt your development long-term, and it helps solve not only the positional logjam at shortstop but also helps with left field (and DH). 

Q: Any word on Raisel Iglesias and when he's due back? -Samantha, Buckhead

Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

Iglesias threw a bullpen session on Tuesday, and we didn't hear anything about it *not* going well. It's going to be similar to spring training: He'll throw a few more bullpens, then face live hitters, then probably go out on a rehab assignment before being activated. He's already eligible to come off the IL, so it's just a matter of him feeling ready. I'd conservatively estimate three weeks before we might see him in Atlanta.

(Side note: Him and Madison Bumgarner are both 33. WILD.)

Q: What are the rotation plans when/if Soroka's ready to pitch in the bigs again? - Lance, Dawson

Mike Watters-USA TODAY Sports

Good question - I'm fond of saying "depth will always work itself out", and I'm still confident in that. Atlanta, last year, had twelve different pitchers start games, and if you take out obvious "opener" scenarios from Uncle Jesse (Chavez) and Jackson Stephens, that's ten starters over 160 games. I'm sure you can find room for him in the rotation. 

That being said, I think it's not something that's going to happen just yet. His results have been encouraging, but let's give him more time to acclimate to being back on the mound before we throw him back into the meat grinder that is starting every fifth day in the majors. 

For now, your five are Fried, Strider, Wright, Morton, and Elder. But we've seen that fifth spot rotate a LOT in Atlanta - that's the curse of being a young starting pitcher on a contending team: They don't have the runway to let you struggle every 5th day. If Elder stumbles a month down the road (or if anyone else gets hurt), Soroka's on the short list to come up and make starts in Atlanta, along with Dylan Dodd, Jared Shuster, and (eventually) Kolby Allard, out with a strained oblique suffered in early March.

(Also, Madison Bumgarner if he signs a veteran minimum deal to come to Atlanta, which I think is a very real possibility so I wanted to get it on the record here). 

Q: Better Murphy, Sean or Dale? - Tyler, Auburn

Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Holy recency bias, Batman! 

Sean Murphy has been great, don't get me wrong: He's batting .259/.420/.611 and is 6th in all of baseball with a 1.031 OPS. He's stepped into the everyday lineup after Travis d'Arnaud's concussion and was one of the main contributors to the just-snapped eight game win streak.  

But Dale Murphy is not only one of the top ten (or maybe even five) greatest baseball players in Atlanta Braves history, he's probably one of the biggest Hall of Fame snubs, too. 

He's an eight-time All-Star who not only won two MVP awards, he won them CONSECUTIVELY, in 1982 & 1983. His six-year stretch from 1982 through 1987 was arguably one of the best performance in baseball in the entire decade, with his average yearly production in that period being .289/.383/.531 with 37 HRs, 111 runs, and 106 RBIs, while also winning five Gold Gloves in centerfield. 

Put some respect on the man's name: Dale Murphy is one of the best to ever do it in Atlanta. 

Thanks for the questions, everyone. 

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