Breaking Down the Atlanta Braves Playoff Situation with Six Games to Go

The Atlanta Braves playoff situation became a lot clearer with a key loss by a wild card opponent on Monday night.

The Atlanta Braves remain in a tight playoff race with six games to go. Mandatory Credit: Rhona Wise-Imagn Images / Rhona Wise-Imagn Images

It’s coming down to the wire. The Atlanta Braves remain in a tight race with six games to go in the regular season. 

They sit one and a half games back of a playoff spot after the Arizona Diamondbacks lost 3-2 to the San Francisco Giants Monday night. 

Upcoming is a key series with the New York Mets, who have a two-game lead for the second wild card. After that, there is one last series on the season against the Kansas City Royals. All games are in Atlanta, giving the Braves the comfort of the home crowd the rest of the way.

Tiebreaker Scenarios (as of Sept. 24)

A reminder to everyone, MLB no longer plays a tiebreaker game. Game 163 is not an option. Should teams be tied after 162 games, a tiebreaker formula determines who gets in. 

The top two tiebreakers are head-to-head record followed by intradivision record. That’s your record against teams in your division. The upcoming schedule impacts both. 

The San Diego Padres hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Braves. They won four of seven matchups this season. However, the Padres are a non-factor at this point. The Braves would have to win out and the Padres would have to lose out.

Meanwhile, the Braves do hold the top tiebreaker over the Diamondbacks. They took five of seven games this season. Let’s say both teams finish with 89 wins - the Braves win four of six and the DBacks lose four of five. The Braves are in. The DBacks are out. 

One tiebreaker is still up for grabs. The Braves and Mets are dead even in their season series - five wins each. Whoever wins the final series this week holds the head-to-head tiebreaker. The Braves can also cancel out the intradivision tiebreaker with a sweep. Both teams would be 29-23 against NL East teams. While the Braves would lead the Mets by that point, it provides an extra safety net.

Key Stats that Help the Braves' Chances

Home field will help the Braves' chances. They have a .560 winning percentage at home compared to a .531 winning percentage on the road. 

They also excel against above .500 teams with a 50-40 record. The Mets, meanwhile, are exactly at .500 (45-45). 

The collapsing Royals are 47-55 against teams over .500 while also being just 37-38 on the road. That doesn’t help their chances of recovering from the seven-game losing streak they’re on. The Braves also dominate American League opponents. They have a 29-14 interleague record. Interleague play has saved their season and it has a chance to get them into the postseason at the last minute. 

The Braves also have a favorable schedule because of their record against winning teams. The Mets have to play the Brewers on the road to end the year. The Diamondbacks have to play the Padres. 

Even if they’re behind, the Braves have a lot of control over their playoff hopes. Win your games, and you’re in.