Projected Arbitration salaries for the 2024 Atlanta Braves roster

Half the roster is projected to be in arbitration, and so those salaries could greatly impact what Atlanta has to spend in free agency

Lindsay Crosby | Oct 15, 2023

The Atlanta Braves entered last season with a top ten payroll in baseball, owing to their propensity for long-term extensions to core players like Ronald Acuña Jr, Matt Olson, and Austin Riley.

But around half of the roster - 13 players - are still in the arbitration process and, as such, Atlanta doesn't know what they'll be paid for next season. Thankfully, the fine folks over at MLB Trade Rumors have developed an arbitration calculator over the years that does a pretty good job of estimating a player's salary in the arbitration process, although it's subject to variance based on where the player and team initially submit their proposals.

What is MLB arbitration and how does it work?

Players with more than three but less than six years of service time - and with as little as two-plus years in specific situations, called "Super 2" players - are not paid league minimum salaries but rather are arbitration eligible.

For "arb-eligible" players, if the player and team do not reach an agreement on what their salary should be for the next season, both parties submit a salary figure to a neutral panel of three arbitrators. At a specific point in the offseason, a hearing is held, where the player's representative and the team's representative meet and make their cases to the panel. One of the two salaries is chosen by the panel, and that's the player's salary for the next season - there is no compromising by the panel; they are required to choose one of the two options presented prior to the hearing.

And this isn't always a friendly process - the team is, in essence, making the case to the arbitrators (who are not baseball people) that the player isn't worth their requested figure. It can (and does) get acrimonious sometimes, and many players choose to not attend the hearings because of the feelings of ill will it can engender between the two parties.

An important consideration here that is frequently missed by the discourse surrounding who "won" and "lost" arbitration hearings - the difference between the player's number and the team's number is often smaller than what it was during their salary negotiation. A common response when the difference is small, such as the $100,000 gap between Mike Foltynewicz's requested $2.3M and Atlanta's offered $2.2M in 2018, is that the team should have just given the player the request rather than go to a potential relationship-harming hearing.

There's two reasons this sometimes happens. First is that the figures are always wider apart during the negotiation process - the "one or the other" nature of arbitration naturally lends itself to a more conservative ask than when you're actively negotiating. The other is the recent trend amongst MLB front offices known as "file and trial" - increasingly, after the salary negotiation reaches the point of officially submitting salary figures to arbitrators and scheduling an hearing, many MLB front offices refuse to negotiate from that point onward, preferring to let the arbitrators make the final decision. Some teams make exceptions to negotiate for a multi-year deal, but most front offices cut off all salary discussion until after the hearing.

Who is arbitration-eligible on the 2024 Braves roster?

Here's the list, in order of service time, as well as their projections from MLB Trade Rumors:

UPDATE: Atlanta has removed ten of the thirteen players off the roster, with only three arbitration eligibles remaining for 2024. We have updated blurbs for each player to reflect their new teams, if applicable.

RP AJ Minter - Arb 4 (Super 2 player, with 5.154 service time) = $6.50M

Minter is just barely under the 172 days required to reach free agency, and as such is under team control for one more season. The 30 year-old reliever pitched to a 3.76 ERA this season with 10 saves and 21 holds, but his 3 blown saves during his early-season fill-in as the closer, as well as his 6 losses on the season, will be used against him in the arbitration process if they get to the hearing.

SP Max Fried - Arb 4 (Super 2 player, with 5.148 service time) = $14.4M

Fried's in a similar position to Minter, just under the required 172 days of service time to be a free agent. As the team's MLBPA player rep, Fried's increasingly unlikely to sign a team-friendly extension, and so this is more than likely his last year with the team.

He won his 2021 and 2022 cases but lost last year, receiving the team's proposed $13.5M rather than his requested $15M.

SP/RP Huascar Ynoa - Arb 1 (3.011 service time) = $1M

Ynoa, who started 17 games for Atlanta in 2021 before going down with Tommy John surgery in September of 2022, is arbitration-eligible after accumulating a year of service time on the injured list while rehabbing.

Projecting best as a reliever due to really only having a fastball and slider - his changeup is a clear third pitch in usage (11%) - Ynoa flashed promise but also inconsistency during his time in the majors. I'd expect him to follow the projected Michael Soroka path and sign a contract in lieu of proceeding to arbitration.

SP Yonny Chirinos - Arb 4 (Super 2 player, with 5.114 service time) = $2M

Many Braves fans were unhappy with Chirinos' results after being claimed off waivers in 2023, but the thought is that an offseason can help the Braves pitching development optimize his pitch mix and sequencing to make him an effective back-end starter. And given his projected low cost, I can absolutely see the Braves offering him a deal for either more than one year or with a club option (at a higher salary) for 2025 - maybe even one that automatically vests, although that's atypical procedure for this front office - that would allow him to earn more if the offseason work turns him into a productive member of the rotation.

UPDATE: Chirinos was non-tendered by Atlanta and is now a free agent.

SP Michael Soroka - Arb 4 (Super 2 player, with 5.009 service time) = $3M

The 26 year-old Soroka will, despite Atlanta's best efforts, be a free agent after this season. After settling for a $2.8M contract in arbitration in 2021, they've avoided arbitration during his rehab process, signing identical contracts for 2022 and 2023. This year will undoubtedly be different, however, with Soroka actually having stats from both the minors and majors to use in a potential hearing.

I still think Atlanta tries to lock up Soroka to an affordable extension, in the hopes that he regains that last bit of missing control to bring him back to "Maple Maddux" territory as well as ensuring some roster certainty past 2024, where Fried and Chirinos project to hit the open market.

UPDATE: Soroka was traded to the Chicago White Sox.

RP Nick Anderson - Arb 2 (4.153 service time) = $1.6M

Anderson looked good in his limited time in Atlanta this season, if not back to the shutdown 2019-2020 form he had with the Tampa Bay Rays prior to losing almost two full seasons with injuries. Given the potential losses to this bullpen, I wouldn't be surprised to see Atlanta aggressively try to retain Anderson's services, even potentially for multiple seasons, provided he's fully healed from the shoulder strain that ended his 2023 season.

UPDATE: Anderson was traded to the Kansas City Royals

INF Nicky Lopez - Arb 3 (Super 2 player, with 4.139 service time) = $3.9M

The Braves went out and got Lopez because they wanted to ensure a high-quality infield backup, and that's exactly what they got with Lopez. Capable of playing all four infield positions at a plus level, plus able to fill-in in the outfield in a pinch, Lopez hasn't regained his 2021 form at the plate but is an incredibly valuable bench piece that Atlanta would love to retain for not only this upcoming season but (probably) long-term.

UPDATE: Lopez was traded to the Chicago White Sox

SP Kolby Allard - Arb 1 (3.162 service time) = $1M

And here's where we get to the first-time arbitration eligibles. An important distinction when first going to arbitration is those initial salaries are based on similar seasons from similar players, and your subsequent arbitration awards are based off of that first arbitration figure.

Unfortunately, Allard's "platform year", as they're known, didn't go according to plan. Making only three starts and pitching 12 total innings due to multiple injuries, as well as having an ERA over 6.50, means that Allard's projected to receive a pretty low first year award.

Provided he's healthy, Allard should be back and competing for that 5th starter spot in spring training, with the ability to kick back to the bullpen if needed.

UPDATE: Allard was non-tendered by Atlanta and is now a free agent

RP Ben Heller - Arb 2 (3.102 service time) = $900k

A midseason acquisition from the Tampa Bay Rays for "cash considerations", Heller pitched okay, ending with a 3.86 ERA in Atlanta, albeit with 11 walks in only 18.2 innings. He's an affordable bullpen option for a team that's facing losing several of them, so I'd expect him to be back, but it won't be for much.

UPDATE: Heller was non-tendered by Atlanta and has signed a minor-league deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates

OF Sam Hilliard - Arb 1 (3.094 service time) = $1.1M

Hilliard, Atlanta's go-to 5th infielder until a hamstring injury and repeated right heel injuries ended his season, was a valuable early-season fill-in for Michael Harris II in centerfield. Given the uncertain status of Atlanta's left field, Hilliard feels like a pretty safe bet to return but it'll come down to health and if the Braves make a splash for the outfield.

UPDATE: Hilliard was claimed off waivers by the Baltimore Orioles

RP Michael Tonkin - Arb 1 (3.074 service time) - $1M

A favorite of the Braves Today staff, Michael "The Honky Tonk Man" Tonkin took on a higher-leverage role in the bullpen this season and (mostly) succeeded. His $1M salary is affordable for a player of his caliber and again, given the potential losses from this bullpen, this is an easy call for Atlanta to make.

UPDATE: Tonkin was non-tendered and has signed a split contract with the New York Mets.

SP Kyle Wright - Arb 1 (3.062 service time) = $1.4MM

Wright's in an interesting situation as far as his contract is concerned - having had shoulder surgery on Friday and already announced as missing the 2024 season, he won't be a contributor next season but is obviously too valuable to be non-tendered. I'd expect a similar situation here as with Soroka - the team and player agreeing to a contract without heading to arbitration.

UPDATE: Wright was traded to the Kansas City Royals

INF Andrew Velazquez - Arb 1 (3.033 service time) = $740k

The 28 year-old Velazquez, a veteran of five teams that was claimed off of waivers from the Los Angeles Angels in early September, is a tenured veteran infielder that's lasted as long as he has because of his defense. He has a career .184 batting average in the majors, but also has committed only eight errors in 269 career games, with the versatility to play shortstop, second base, third base, and all three outfield positions. He feels like the new Charlie Culberson, now that Culberson is converting into a relief pitcher, but whether he's tendered a contract or goes to arbitration, he's not likely to make more than the league minimum.

UPDATE: Velasquez was non-tendered and returned on a minor-league deal

Who would you make a point to retain, and who would you let walk? Let us know!

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Published Oct 15, 2023

LINDSAY CROSBY

Managing Editor for Braves Today and the 2023 IBWAA Prospects/Minors Writer of the Year. You can reach him at contact@bravestoday.com