Projections Reveal Promising Return for Braves' Spencer Strider

The Atlanta Braves will get a valuable arm back in their rotation some time in the first half of the season, and the projections reveal a promising return to the mound

Here's what the projections say about Spencer Strider's return / Jonathan Dyer-Imagn Images

The Atlanta Braves starting rotation will get a boost with the return of righty Spencer Strider. Since he’s returning from missing a full season and recovering from a UCL injury, we aren’t sure what we’re gonna get at least right away. However, he can still look to projections to get an idea. 

FanGraphs has its 2025 projections for every player on the Braves on its website. From traditional stats to their personal advanced metrics, there’s a lot to unpack for each player, including Strider. We’ll look at some of the most notable stats to determine what the Braves will get out of the Vandelay Industries product.  

When We Will See Strider

Heads up, some very rough math is being added on top of the projections for this section. 

Strider is projected to make 19 starts in 2025. Using some very rough math, that’s just shy of 60% of a full season’s worth of starts (57.57%) - I used 33 as that number. I applied that proportion to 162 games to project how much of the season he could end up missing. He should come back around 68 games in, which places his return around early June. 

Again, this is a rough estimate based on the projections and rough math. He could be back sooner. MLB Insider Ken Rosenthal said on Foul Territory on Tuesday that he would be back “sooner rather than later.” 

He said in that same discussion that Strider would see action in Spring Training but would not be rushed back into the rotation for the regular season. If he is going to have “a full Spring Training,” it’s hard to imagine that he will take that long to get back. 

This number of projected starts could also factor in the Braves pushing starts back from time to time, but that’s just pure speculation. It’s a realistic reason, so that’s why it’s being mentioned. 

Until Strider comes back early enough to possibly make more than 19 starts, this is what FanGraphs is rolling with. 

What We Can Expect From Strider

Once he’s back, FanGraphs has indicated that you will see Strider be one of the top arms in the rotation.  He is projected to finish with an 8-5 record, a 3.19 ERA and 146 strikeouts in 110 1/3 innings pitched (11.92 per nine innings), a 1.09 WHIP, a 2.7 WAR and a 3.06 FIP. 

Here’s where some of these key stats rank among Braves starters:

• ERA: second
• FIP: second 
• WHIP: second 
• K/9: first 
• WAR: tied second

Counting stats were omitted because pitching in fewer games is gonna skew that number a bit. Either way, only the Cy Young-winning Chris Sale is projected to out perform him. 

Once Strider is back, the Braves are projected to gain another ace to the rotation. Even if he’s not a lefty, he’ll be able to take over Max Fried’s spot. 

Now, obviously, we can’t speak for if these numbers mean he will be consistent from start to finish. He could struggle in his first few starts as he gets back to form and then once he dials in, he gets that ERA down to 3.19. This is just one plausible scenario. The inverse could be true because his arm tires out or he could just be consistent throughout after all. 

Regardless, these are projections the Braves will gladly take and run with. Or as Larry David would probably put it, things will look pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty good