What the Stats Projections Say About Braves 2025 Expectations

A quiet offseason and lackluster 2024 raised concerns for next season, but the numbers project them to still be in a good spot

Based on the numbers the Braves are in a good spot / Brett Davis-Imagn Images

Last year’s turbulent season and quiet offseason have put the Atlanta Braves' expectations in a tough spot. Even if this team gets healthy, there are mixed views on how well they’ll perform next year. 

One way to get a better idea is to look at the numbers and the projections. Since they haven’t even reported for Spring Training, it’s all we have right now to make a proper evaluation. 

TJ Stats, a baseball blog that specializes in data analytics, put out projections for each team’s ERA, home runs, ERA+ and wRC+ for the 2025 season. So for these stats, we’ll get a mix of traditional and advanced stats. According to his posts on X, he used FanGraphs to make these stats. 

The Braves’ projections are looking pretty good even with their current roster. They’re projected to have an MLB-leading 108 ERA+ and a 3.86 ERA. This ERA is tied for second-best with the Detroit Tigers and only trails the Seattle Mariners (3.75 ERA). 

Offensively, the Braves are projected to have a 108 wRC+, a stat that is similar to Baseball Reference’s OPS+. It’s the fourth-best among MLB teams. 

So, the Braves are projected to be a top-five team in regards to pitching, like they were in 2024 and offensively, like they were when the lineup was healthy in 2023. 

It would be great if this team went and made some solid offseason additions while they still have the options out there. It would be unwise to look at the current roster and not make any upgrades, even after knowing these numbers. 

However, stats like these help keep things a bit grounded in reality. This is a team looking for finishing touches are opposed to requiring serious talent to compete. They have the talent that allows them to be more selective with who they sign and tip-toe around the luxury tax threshold. 

While they won’t be back to start the season, Ronald Acuña Jr. and Spencer Strider will be back. Austin Riley and Ozzie Albies are expected to be back to full strength.

If last season won 89 games and made the playoffs while missing each of these guys for either the entire season or large chunks of it, it’s reasonable to conclude they’ll do a bit better in 2025.