What is wrong with Austin Riley's offense?

The Braves third baseman is having a down year at the plate by his own lofty standards - let's see if we can figure out why

Austin Riley is a fan favorite for the Atlanta Braves. The big third baseman, taken out of the Mississippi high school ranks in the 1st round of the 2015 MLB Draft, has always had one of the best selling jerseys of any current Braves player and is insanely popular with the fan base. 

His surface stats this season look...fine, at first glance: .260/.325/.423 w/ eleven HRs, twenty-four extra base hits, thirty-four RBIs and forty-two runs scored.  

But when you compare it to previous seasons, it's a bit lacking. 

Season	Batting Average	On-Base Percentage	Slugging	Home Runs	Runs/RBIs	Strikeouts
2021	.303	.367	.531	33	91/107	168
2022	.273	.349	.528	38	90/93	168
2023	.260	.325	.423	25	94/76	173

As you can see, for the most part Austin's strikeouts and runs scored are around the same, but everything else - averages, homeruns, RBIs - are down this season, and are trending down for the 2nd straight season. 

Digging into some of the numbers, there's a few things that explain the lower production this season:

Austin Riley has struggled against righties

 In 2021, Riley had a .941 OPs against right-handed pitchers. That dropped to .811 last year, and is currently at .726 in 2023. 

Statcast has a handy feature called "Zone Charts", where it shows you visually on a strike zone where players are getting pitched to, or making contact, or any one of forty different statistics. I found something interesting when looking at Riley's: 

When facing a right-handed pitcher, he's struggling to make quality contact on pitches up and in. 

Here is his 2021 batting average on pitches up and in (top left of both charts):

MLB Statcast

Strikes up and in, Riley batted .556 with a 1.800 slugging. Non-strikes, it's still a .364 average with a .515 slugging.  

By comparison, here's 2023: 

MLB Statcast

It's a LOT more blue, but strikes up and in? No hits, at all. Balls up and in he's hitting .211 with a .211 slugging, so they've all been singles. 

There's more blue on the chart in 2023, yes, so his performance is down across the board, and some of it is also concerning - strikes down and away went from a .302 batting average with a .462 slugging to .080. Strikes up and away went from a .333 average and .750 slugging in 2021 to a .200 average and .200 slugging - another all singles performance. 

Pitchers have definitely noticed - the trend was always to pitch him down and away, usually with sliders, and that's been the consistent #1 pitch location in all three years that we looked at. The 2nd most consistent pitch location in 2023 has been up and in - he's seen 109 pitches up and in, twenty more than any other location that's not down and away. 

And he's not hitting them. 

Even worse, when he does hit them, they're not lifted like they used to be: His average launch angle has dropped from an above-average 14.2 degrees in 2021 to a exactly MLB average 12.1 degrees in 2023. 

This means that even when he makes hard contact (defined as 95 mph or higher exit velocity) - and he continues to do that, with an above average 45.2% Hard Hit rate that is nine-plus percent over MLB average (36.1%) and virtually where he was in 2021 (45.6%) - he's getting worse results. The lower launch angle means his barrel rate - how often you hit a ball at a combination of exit velocity and launch angle that's conducive to hitting a home run - has fallen from 13.3% in 2021 to 9.0% in 2023 (MLB average this season is 6.8%). 

But that still doesn't explain WHY. It's how the results are worse, looking at batted balls and seeing what's different, but it doesn't explain WHY he's performing below his previous standards. 

David O'Brien of The Athletic wrote ($) back in late May about Riley emerging from his early-season slump, where he batted .190 with only three homeruns to thirty strikeouts in a twenty-five game stretch, and had some interesting quotes from Braves hitting coach Kevin Seitzer about Riley's different approach at the plate and the struggles it was causing: 

He’s fighting it a little bit, but if we can just get him on ‘go’ on the fastball — he’s missing a lot of heaters because he doesn’t want to chase (pitches out of the strike zone). And so when you don’t want to chase, by the time that you see that you’re getting a fastball for a strike and you try and pull the trigger, it’s by you. So, it’s like chasing is part of it, to be on time for a heater.
“That’s where the approach comes into play, which he’s so good about — staying in the middle of the field, right-center gap. But you’ve got to be in swing mode, not react mode. Mags (assistant hitting coach Bobby Magallanes) said this a couple of weeks ago and I loved it — the only decision a hitter makes is ‘no.’ You’re, ‘Yes, yes, yes,’ until you say ‘no.’ So it’s not, ‘See it, see it … yes,’ or ‘See it, see it … no.’ It’s ‘go’ and then say ‘no.’ And that’s how you have to hit.”

So it's related to his approach, specifically missing fastballs because he's trying to not chase out of the zone. 

We can quantify that with numbers, thanks to Statcast:

Austin Riley in 2021 on four-seam fastballs: .317 w/ .571 slugging  

Austin Riley in 2023 on four-seam fastballs: .217 w/ .361 slugging

And being late on fastballs would explain the higher groundball rate, too - he's sitting at 43.3% on the year, where he was at 38.8% in 2021 (MLB average is 44.8%). When you're behind on a fastball, especially one up and in, you're not getting a barrel on the ball but hitting it closer into the hands, either breaking your bat or putting it as a weak roller in the infield.   

While his hitting is down against all pitch types across the board, also noticeably on sliders, it's the four-seamer numbers that stand out most significantly. Because he's getting more of them - 35% of the time, compared to 31.6% in 2021. 

So, to sum it up: 

Austin Riley's getting more four-seam fastballs, hitting worse against them, and it's because he's trying to not chase breaking pitches out of the zone - but the team knows, and they're working with him on it. 

Once he gets back into "go" mode and starts crushing them again? 

Look out, MLB. 

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