What Could Ronald Acuña Jr. Be Worth on His Next Contract After Juan Soto Deal?

The New York Mets and Juan Soto just set the bar very high for upcoming new contracts for star baseball players.

Atlanta Braves right fielder Ronald Acuna Jr. / Charles LeClaire-Imagn Images

The Atlanta Braves may have to deal with outfielder Juan Soto in the New York Mets lineup for the next decade and a half. But that might not have been the biggest takeaway from Braves fans after Soto inked his 15-year, $765 million contract Sunday night.

The deal left a lot of Braves Country wondering this thought -- what will Ronald Acuña Jr. be worth when he reaches free agency? Furthermore, do the Braves have any chance in the world of signing him?

First, let's try to project Acuña's value.

He missed the final four months of the 2024 season, but when healthy, it's very clear Acuña is one of the best baseball players on the planet. In 2023, he made his own club, recording 41 home runs and 73 steals in the same season.

Also in 2023, Acuña led the National League with a .416 on-base percentage and 1.012 OPS. It was his fourth All-Star season, and he also won his third Silver Slugger Award.

If Acuña was on the market this offseason, he wouldn't get close to Soto's $765 million because of his knees. Acuña has now undergone two reconstructive knee surgeries. After the first one, he returned to post his 40/70 campaign. But teams will want to see if Acuña can get back close to that level before offering him an expensive long-term deal.

Assuming Acuña bounces back to MVP (or close to it) form, then his value could be close to Soto's on an average annual basis. The Mets outfield will make an average of $51 million per season on his 15-year deal.

But Acuña won't, for certain, receive a 10-year deal let alone a 15-year contract because of the age he will be when he reaches free agency. His current deal expires in two years, and then, the contract includes two club options for 2027 and 2028. Those options, if the Braves execute them, will pay Acuña $17 million per season.

Unless Acuña is still dealing with significant injuries two years from now, it's hard to imagine a scenario where the Braves don't execute the outfielder's option for both 2027 and 2028. And in that scenario, Acuña will be worth less than $17 million on the open market, and this conversion is moot anyway.

That means Acuña won't reach free agency until after the 2028 season when he is 31 years old. Right now, Soto is 26.

Yes, Acuña has won an MVP award and Soto hasn't. But even putting aside free agency age, when pundits began comparing the two players Sunday night after Soto's deal, Acuña wasn't declared to be the obviously superior player.

While I agree Acuña is the more talented player, this can't be dismissed: In past 4 seasons, Acuña has averaged 463 PAs & 102 games played while posting a .900 OPS, 143 OPS+ & 14.5 WAR.
Soto in that span averaged 685 PAs & 156 games while posting a .943 OPS, 164 OPS+ & 26.0 WAR. https://t.co/Ae6uNuQOHJ

— David O'Brien (@DOBrienATL) December 9, 2024

As The Athletic's David O'Brien noted, Soto owns a better OPS, OPS+ and WAR over the past four seasons. Not to mention, Soto has also played at least 150 games every year since 2019 (excluding the 2020 COVID-shortened season).

Despite these points, SI.com's Harrison Smajovits argued Acuña is still in for some serious money. Compared to what the Braves are paying him now, which seems like pennies on the dollar for what he's actually worth, Smajovits is absolutely right.

Acuña's average annual salary could easily triple on his next contract. If it does, he will be in the $35-40 million per season range.

But Acuña's game isn't as conducive to success after he loses some of his speed. And again, he will be 31 when he's on the open market. So, I would expect MLB teams to perhaps protect themselves with shorter-term offers for Acuña.

Could he receive an 8-year, $320 million offer? Based on projected 2025 MLB player salaries, that would give Acuña the fourth-highest average annual salary in the MLB.

In terms of total value, though, a $320 million contract wouldn't rank in the top 10 even today. So perhaps Acuña will seek more than $320 million, especially when he could have signed a much bigger deal had he waited like Soto did.

Would a team be willing to offer him 8 years and $375 million? That would slightly beat Mookie Betts' deal from a few years ago.

It will likely all depend on his health when he's 31.

Now, will the Braves be able to pay him? That's even harder to answer. Based on his popularity, the Braves should, assuming, again, he's still playing at a high level in four years.

The good news is the Braves have a lot of their young core locked in on long, affordable contracts. Even still, the Braves will have other major contract questions around the same time as Acuña.

Second baseman Ozzie Albies will see his contract expire after the 2027 season. Furthermore, starting pitcher Spencer Strider will be a free agent in late 2029.

Not to beat a dead horse, but whether the Braves want to pay Acuña instead of Albies and/or Strider could depend on his health. Could it be better for the organization to have Albies and Strider instead of Acuña if the right fielder is seeking even more than $40 million per season?

Perhaps. Remember, the Braves actually won their World Series in 2021 without Acuña playing a single game after July.

The last factor, of course, is Acuña himself. What will he want? It appears Soto wanted the biggest payday possible.

If that's Acuña's goal, then the Braves won't be the front runner to retain him. But if he's willing to accept another bargain deal, Atlanta's chances of keeping Acuña increase tremendously.