Brewers Have Best Chance To Win 2024 World Series, According To Model

Could 2024 finally be the year for Milwaukee?

Aug 23, 2024; Oakland, California, USA; Milwaukee Brewers shortstop Willy Adames (27) celebrates with left fielder Jackson Chourio (11) after defeating the Oakland Athletics at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports / Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

The Milwaukee Brewers and their fans are starving for a World Series title. Could 2024 finally be the year they get it done?

Though the Brewers franchise has existed since 1969, Milwaukee is still one of just five teams in Major League Baseball never to win it all. And with the Texas Rangers winning in 2023, the Brewers are now tied with the San Diego Padres as the oldest franchise never to raise the Commissioner's Trophy.

In the past decade, the Brewers have had many excellent teams that were thought to have a shot at bringing home that elusive title. It hasn't happened yet, with the nearest miss in 2018, when Milwaukee lost in seven games to the Los Angeles Dodgers in the National League Championship Series.

However, in 2024, they just might have their best chance yet. And the numbers back up that notion.

According to popular statistical database Baseball Reference, which has an algorithm that calculates playoff and championship odds, the Brewers entered play Friday with a 13.4% chance to win the World Series, the highest of any team in MLB. The Dodgers were second, with 11.7%.

Part of the Brewers' statistical advantage comes from their huge lead in the National League Central. With a 10-game lead over the second-place St. Louis Cardinals, the Brewers have more than double the separation atop their division compared to any other team in the big leagues.

After losing ace Corbin Burnes via trade in the winter, and superstar outfielder Christian Yelich to season-ending back surgery, it seems improbable the Brewers could still have such a good shot at a title. But that has long been the Brewer way: Win, no matter the names on the backs of the jerseys.

And the names are still pretty darn good: William Contreras has a case for best catcher in baseball, Willy Adames is among the game's best two-way shortstops, Freddy Peralta can log innings and strikeouts with the best of aces, and rookie Jackson Chourio is quickly ascending to superstardom.

If it all comes together, perhaps the Brewers can make good on Baseball Reference's modeling and finally bring a trophy home to American Family Field. But at this point, cautious optimism is the only solution for a fan base that's yet to win the big one.

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