Brewers Land Surprising Projection Ahead Of Spring Training

Will the Brewers win the division for the third straight year?

May 31, 2024; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; General view of Milwaukee Brewers batting helmets in the dugout prior to the game against the Chicago White Sox at American Family Field. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images / Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

The Milwaukee Brewers will enter the 2025 season after winning the National League Central in each of the last two seasons.

Milwaukee actually has won the division in three of the last four years and hasn't had less than 86 wins over that stretch. The Brewers will enter the 2025 season with a pretty similar roster as last year's 93-win squad, aside from Devin Williams and Willy Adames.

Those are two pretty big losses. The Brewers traded Williams for Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin and lost Adames in free agency. There's no one-to-one replacement, but Williams likely will be replaced by Trevor Megill. The rotation should be better in 2025 with Cortes now on the team and Brandon Woodruff expected to return at some point early on after missing the 2024 season.

It should be another good year for the Brewers, but Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projection doesn't agree. The PECOTA projection currently has Milwaukee's win total projected at 80.5 and loss total at 81.5. They have the Brewers projected to be the second-best team in the National League Central behind the Chicago Cubs. Chicago's projected win total is 90.5 while the loss total is projected at 71.5.

Chicago has been more active than the Brewers this offseason, but has it done enough to be 10 games better than Milwaukee? Not necessarily. These two teams clearly are the best in the division but it seems like the projections are underestimating the Brewers.

Milwaukee hasn't won less than 86 games over the last four years and has topped 92 or more wins three times. It certainly seems like the Brewers could have more than 80 wins in 2025.

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