Brewers Listed As Surprise Trade Deadline Losers, According To New Report

They say numbers never lie, but is this an exception?

Aug 23, 2024; Oakland, California, USA; Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Aaron Civale (32) tosses the ball to first base to record an out against the Oakland Athletics during the fourth inning at Oakland-Alameda County Coliseum. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports / Darren Yamashita-USA TODAY Sports

A month after the 2024 Major League Baseball trade deadline, the jury is still out on the Milwaukee Brewers' acquisitions.

After suffering a multitude of starting pitching injuries in the first half, the Brewers focused their energy on fortifying the starting rotation at the deadline. They acquired Aaron Civale from the Tampa Bay Rays two weeks before the deadline, then later added Frankie Montas from the Cincinnati Reds.

The Brewers have rarely been the team to pull off a deadline blockbuster, though fans will never forget CC Sabathia's incredible run in 2008. But those acquisitions seem solid enough, no?

One recent report disagrees. ESPN's Bradford Doolittle rated Major League Baseball contenders' trade deadlines based on win probability, and the Brewers ranked among Doolittle's biggest losers.

"Frankie Montas has been pretty good (129 ERA+), though he's slightly in the red by WPA. Aaron Civale is pretty far in the red, though his standard line is around league average (98 ERA+). Neither has resembled the frontline starter Milwaukee needed," Doolittle said. "We'll find out if this proves to be a fatal flaw when we get to October."

In total, the Brewers' deadline amounted to -1.13 WPA, per Doolittle. In the same time frame, however, the Brewers' chances of making the playoffs have gone up from 89% to 99%.

On one hand, Doolittle is just reporting the numbers, and this particular metric reports that the Brewers have come out losers to this point. But looking at the bigger picture, it's hard to say Milwaukee should be disappointed at all with the results they've gotten from Montas and Civale.

Since arriving in Milwaukee, Montas has been the best version of himself. In five starts, he has a 2-1 record, 3.33 ERA, and 3.17 FIP. Though he lost his last start, the start before that was a seven-inning, scoreless virtuoso against the rival St. Louis Cardinals, who were in second place at the time.

Meanwhile Civale, who had been struggling with the Tampa Bay Rays before the trade, has gradually returned to effective form. He owns a 3.72 ERA in nine starts since coming over, and threw seven scoreless innings of his own on Thursday as the Brewers blanked the San Francisco Giants 6-0.

The Brewers may not have made the splashy trade, but true to form, they brought in undervalued players who have improved since arriving in Milwaukee. The question, as always will be whether smart value acquisitions can translate to postseason success at long last.

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