Cardinals 3-Time All-Star's Negative Trends 'Could Signal Catastrophe' For 2025

St. Louis' rotation could be in trouble

Apr 9, 2024; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; St. Louis Cardinals starting pitcher Sonny Gray (54) pitches against the Philadelphia Phillies during the first inning at Busch Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Curry-Imagn Images / Jeff Curry-Imagn Images

The St. Louis Cardinals rotation could be in trouble for this upcoming season after neglecting to offload any talent in this year's trade market.

Cardinals ace Sonny Gray and former Chicago White Sox hurler Erick Fedde will lead the way, with Miles Mikolas and Steven Matz likely to follow. All four veterans hope to produce better results than last year's mediocre season.

After Gray invoked his full no-trade clause earlier this offseason, the Cardinals were forced to keep the right-handed pitcher at the front of the rotation. Could a disastrous 2025 season be ahead of St. Louis' top starter?

"An uptick in home runs contributed to Gray’s inflated ERA in 2024," The Athletic's Andy McCullough, Will Sammon and Sahadev Sharma wrote Wednesday morning after ranking Gray as the league's 36th best-starting pitcher. "He’s reached the age where negative trends could signal catastrophe. But Gray has pulled himself back from the brink several times already in his career. Maybe he’ll cut down on the dingers and get back to the form he displayed during his 2022-23 run with Minnesota (Twins)."

Gray's 2025 spring training performance has been frightening, to say the least -- logging a 0-2 record with a 13.97 ERA, 12-to-6 strikeout-to-walk ratio, .372 batting average against and a 2.28 WHIP in 9 2/3 inning pitched for the Cardinals.

Although a pitcher's spring training stats don't always translate to the regular season, as some hurlers take the time to test out new approaches and different pitches to their arsenal, it's tough to see Gray perform so poorly.

The three-time All-Star finished as the 2023 American League Cy Young runner-up before joining the Cardinals that following offseason -- posting a 13-9 record with a 3.84 ERA, 203-to-39 strikeout-to-walk ratio, .228 batting average against and a 1.09 WHIP in 166 1/3 innings pitched for St. Louis last year.

The 35-year-old sacrificed a career-high 21 home runs in 2024 -- only giving up eight the year prior. One could look at Gray's recent decline and be worried about what's to come. Still, he is a proven veteran capable of front-end quality stuff, so it's too early to predict that he'll fall apart this upcoming season.

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