Chicago Cubs’ Farm System Gets New Future Valuation

A unique ranking system saw the Chicago Cubs make a significant drop from their No. 2 preseason system ranking.

Apr 23, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Jordan Wicks (36) delivers a pitch against the Houston Astros during the first inning at Wrigley Field. / Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports

The Chicago Cubs are regarded in some circles as having one of baseball’s top farm systems. But, in a recent updated valuation of its prospects’ future earnings, the organization took a significant dip.

ESPN re-ranked all of baseball’s systems based on what happened in the MLB Draft and at the trade deadline and the Cubs fell from No. 2 in the preseason to No. 12 with what ESPN called a surplus value of the system.

How did the site rank the organizations? FanGraphs calculated the surplus value. First, the site used historical data to determine what each prospect would do in the Majors if called up. Then, the system used that projection to determine what each player would make during their six controllable years as MLB players. Then, the site added up that value to reach the surplus value for each organization.

In the new, adjusted rankings the Cubs had a surplus value of $249 million, a steep drop from the $328 million value it had before the season.

So, what changed? A good portion of the value figured into the preseason rankings graduated from prospect rankings, including outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong pitcher Jordan Wicks, pitcher Ben Brown and first baseman Michael Busch. Another Top 30 prospect — outfielder Yohendrick Pinango — was also dealt at the deadline.

Additionally, two prospects that ESPN called “arrow-up” prospects in Ty Johnson and Hunter Bigge were dealt to the Tampa Bay Rays for Isaac Paredes.

The losses of those prospects put a dent in the Cubs’ overall system value.

ESPN lists infielder Matt Shaw as the organization’s No. 1 prospect, and he was one of three top prospects called up to Triple-A Iowa for Tuesday’s game. Baseball America has injured pitcher Cade Horton as the organization’s No. 1 prospect.

Shaw was the Cubs’ first-round pick last year, while Horton was the Cubs’ first-round pick in 2022.

The other Top 30 prospects headed to Iowa are James Triantos and outfielder Kevin Alcantara. Shaw and Triantos played in last month’s MLB Futures Game while another Top 30 prospect and Iowa player, catcher Moises Ballesteros, participated in the MLB Futures Skills Challenge.

The MLB Draft also helped Chicago reclaim some of that lost value. Per Baseball America, three of the Cubs’ draft selections immediately moved into the organization’s Top 10 — first-round pick Cam Smith, second-round pick Cole Mathis and fourth-round pick Ty Southisene. Smith and Mathis were both power hitters in college.