Chicago Cubs May Have Gotten Better Deal With Veteran Free Agent Backup Plan

The Chicago Cubs may have gotten the better end of the bargain.

Michael Brauner | Feb 20, 2025

Oct 29, 2017; Houston, TX, USA; Los Angeles Dodgers designated hitter Justin Turner (10) is tagged out by Houston Astros third baseman Alex Bregman (2) in the 7th inning in game five of the 2017 World Series at Minute Maid Park. / Thomas B. Shea-Imagn Images

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Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs seem to have figured out their plan at third base this week with the season just over a month away.

After missing out on their dream target for the hot corner in Alex Bregman, the Cubs wound up pivoting and landing a fellow two-time All-Star in former Los Angeles Dodgers World Series champion Justin Turner.

While Bregman signed for a staggering $40 million AAV with the Boston Red Sox, Chicago got Turner for a measly $6 million, which obviously feels like pennies in comparison.

Let's be clear here: no one is arguing Turner is a better player than Bregman or really ever was a better player at any point in both of their respective careers. Both players are champions and both players have made the All-Star game twice in their careers, but that's really where direct similarities end in terms of who is better than the other.

With that being said however, it's not a crazy argument to say the value of getting Turner for just $6 million on a one-year deal versus the value of committing to three potential seasons of $40 million, it's not too farfetched to say the Cubs may have gotten the better end of the bargain.

It's an obvious plus to say signing Turner over Bregman in the short term leaving the spot open for Matt Shaw to take when he's ready rather than bringing in Bregman as your presumed third baseman for the foreseeable future, but the production you get from each isn't worlds different either.

Looking at the numbers over the last two seasons, the two players are closer on the offensive side of the ball than you may think.

In 2024, Bregman had a down year by his standards which is not exactly ideal headed into free agency and potentially the reason why no one was willing to meet his initial demands. Slashing .260/.315/.453 with a career-low OPS of just .768, Bregman began to decline at the age of just 30.

In 2023, the slash line for Bregman was a slightly better .262/.363/.441 with 25 home runs and 98 RBI.

For Turner, he had a down year himself at the age of 39 in 2024 both with the Toronto Blue Jays and the Seattle Mariners, but his slash line of .259/.354/.383 was close to that of Bregman's, at least not $34 million behind.

In 2023 with the Red Sox, the numbers for Turner were even closer Bregman with a .276/.345/.455 including a very comparable 23 home runs and 96 RBI.

Bregman is the far better defender (and has been throughout his career), but Turner has consistently shown a better ability to get on base plus the obvious fact of being far more cost effective.

It's quite the spin on the surface to argue Chicago got the better deal when they lost out on one of the best third basemen in all of baseball and replaced him with someone entering their age 40 season, but upon a deeper dive into the numbers it's not all that crazy.

Time will tell if the Cubs made the right call or not in pivoting to Turner rather than bending to Bregman's massive demands.

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