Chicago Cubs Would Benefit From Two Targets Declining Qualifying Offers

The Chicago Cubs should feel confident in both options declining a qualifying offer this winter.

Jan 12, 2024; Chicago, IL, USA; Chicago Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer talks to the media after introducing pitcher Shota Imanaga (not pictured) during a press conference at Loews Chicago Hotel. / Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

The Chicago Cubs clearly need to improve their lineup, but there will be challenges in doing so during the offseason.

Even if the Cubs spend the money they need to, free agents might not want to play in Chicago, or another team may be willing to offer more money. 

The Cubs also have to consider qualifying offers, as they could be interested in players who might receive them from the teams they're currently on. 

According to Thomas Harrigan of MLB.com, the qualifying offer in 2025 will be set at $21.05 million.

"Teams can extend a qualifying offer to select free agents each offseason. Players who accept are signed to a one-year deal for the next season at the designated value (set at $21.05 million for 2025). Those who don't accept remain free agents, and if a new team signs them, their old team receives Draft pick compensation."

Harrigan also listed two potential Chicago targets as players who might get a qualifying offer from their current ball club. 

The first was Pete Alonso of the New York Mets, a rumored Cubs target over the past 12 months. However, with the emergence of Michael Busch, Alonso isn't as much of a need as he was a few months ago. 

Nonetheless, he'd be an excellent addition to this ball club.

"Alonso has been one of baseball’s top power hitters since his 2019 debut, ranking second in the Majors behind Aaron Judge with 226 home runs in that time. The durable first baseman, who owns a lifetime .854 OPS, has never finished a full season (excluding 2020) with fewer than 34 dingers."

The other player mentioned by Harrigan was Teoscar Hernandez. The chances of Hernandez taking a qualifying offer seem slim, as he's expected to get a long-term deal on the open market.

"Hernández signed a one-year, $23.5 million deal with the Dodgers last offseason and went on to record a career-high 33 homers with an .840 OPS, up 99 points from the .741 OPS he posted with the Mariners in 2023."

Even if Hernandez didn't get a long-term deal this offseason, a team would likely be willing to spend more than $21.05 million on him on a one-year contract.

The same could be said for Alonso, which only benefits Chicago. They don't want their free-agent targets to re-sign with their current teams, so declining a qualifying offer would be the best outcome.