Justin Steele Projected To Sign Team-Friendly Extension With Chicago Cubs

The Chicago Cubs have one of the best two-hole starters in Justin Steele, and a recent prediction has the team locking him up with a club-friendly extension.

Sep 18, 2024; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs starting pitcher Justin Steele (35) delivers a pitch against the Oakland Athletics during the first inning at Wrigley Field. Mandatory Credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images / Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn Images

Greg Maddux, Kerry Wood, Carlos Zambrano, Fergie Jenkins.

A list that barely scratches the surface of great pitchers the Chicago Cubs have employed throughout the years of their franchise's existence.

With the trajectory that Justin Steele's career has taken, there is a chance that he could join them.

Steele is a left-handed pitcher drafted by the Cubs out of high school in 2014. He did not make his Major League debut until 2021, but since debuting, he has more than proven his ability with a 3.24 ERA across 484 innings with 496 strikeouts and a 129 ERA+.

With the New York Yankees signing Max Fried to the largest contract for a left-handed pitcher in the history of baseball, many have begun to speculate what an extension between Chicago and Steele would entail.

A recent article from The Athletic dives deep into that possibility, examining the likelihood and parameters of a potential extension for the lefty.

Patrick Mooney and Tim Britton came up with an extremely team-friendly deal of six years, $96 million, for an AAV of $16 million.

"A good sweet spot for Steele, then, could be a deal that values any free-agent years at roughly $22 million," they wrote. "Buying out two of his free-agent years at that number would sign him through the age of 33 with a five-year deal worth about $74 million overall. Adding one more year would make it a six-year pact for $96 million."

Steele is in his first year of arbitration eligibility, with Spotrac projecting the lefty to land $7.9 million through the process. For Mooney and Britton's prediction, the lefty would earn an AAV of $10 million over the next three years.

"The starting point would be what Steele should earn over his next three seasons in arbitration. As a Super Two player based on service time, he’s already at a nice perch: MLB Trade Rumors estimates he’ll get around $6.4 million for 2025. From there, you could project an additional $22 million to $25 million for the 2026 and 2027 seasons, so let’s round it to $30 million over the next three years total."

This would require Steele to be willing to take a pay cut for 2026 and 2027, as landing a $7.9 million, or even $6.4 million, arbitration figure and producing in 2025 as he has throughout his career could see him double those numbers for 2026.

It is even highly likely that the lefty could land a $20 million or more ruling for his third year of eligibility.

This deal would be very beneficial to the Cubs, allowing them to keep one of their best starting pitchers while also still having room in their payroll for additional players.

Whether or not Steele would agree to it is a different story.