Market for Cubs' Free Agent Bellinger Is Drying Up

With the San Francisco Giants, New York Yankees and Toronto Blue Jays filling their outfield needs elsewhere, the market for Chicago Cubs' free agent Cody Bellinger may be drying up.

Seen by many as the best free agent position player behind Shohei Ohtani coming into the offseason, it appeared as though Cody Bellinger was set for a huge payday this winter. Now, the market seems as if it is drying up for the 2019 National League MVP.

The San Francisco Giants, Toronto Blue Jays, New York Yankees and Chicago Cubs had all been linked to the 28 year-old Arizona native. The prospects of a four-way bidding war for the services of a resurgent All-Star had Bellinger and agent Scott Boras reportedly seeking a ten-year, $250 million deal, per USA Today's Bob Nightengale. Over the last three weeks, however, three of those four teams have bolstered their outfield, making Bellinger a non-essential.

The Yankees seemed like a natural fit for Bellinger, given Yankee Stadium's short porch in right field and the Bellinger family's history in the Bronx. Cody's father Clay Bellinger played for the Yankees from 1999 through 2001, serving as a utility man and collecting two World Series rings. Perhaps Cody could have followed in his father's footsteps and helped the Bronx Bombers win their first World Series since 2009, but the Yankees opted to go in another direction.

In the final hours of the MLB winter meetings, the Yankees acquired 2021 NL MVP runner-up Juan Soto and two-time Gold Glove Award-winning center fielder Trent Grisham in exchange for Michael King, Jhony Brito, Randy Vasquez, Drew Thorpe and Kyle Higashioka.

A day earlier, New York made a rare trade with the Boston Red Sox, acquiring outfielder Alex Verdugo in exchange for Richard Fitts, Greg Weissert and Nicholas Judice. With the Yankees having added three veteran outfielders already this winter, and Anthony Rizzo manning first base, the Yankees appear to be out on Bellinger (if they were ever 'in' to begin with).

Two weeks ago, the Giants signed Korean star outfield Jung Hoo Lee to a six-year, $113 million deal. The Giants appear to be in on a handful of other big-ticket free agents, including Matt Chapman, Blake Snell and Bellinger. Given that they have already added a high-priced outfielder this month, I would imagine that signing Chapman and a starting pitcher would be a greater priority to the club than signing a second outfielder. If the Giants lose out on Chapman, however, the club could pivot back to Bellinger, in hopes of returning the two-time All-Star to the National League West.

Nightengale and San Francisco Chronicle beat writer Susan Slusser have noted that the Giants aren't out on Bellinger, but according to Slusser, San Francisco is indeed targeting other free agents.

Tuesday, Nightengale reported that the Blue Jays had agreed to terms on a one-year, $10.5 million contract with Kevin Kiermaier. Kiermaier batted .265 and won his fourth Gold Glove Award of his career in his first season with the Blue Jays in 2023. With Kiermaier, George Springer and Daulton Varsho all locked up, the Blue Jays may be set in the outfield. Bellinger could slot in at first base, if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. were to be Toronto's primary designated hitter.

Needless to say, the Giants and Blue Jays now have less of a need for Bellinger, which may lessen his chances of inking a contract north of $200 million.

Nightengale has also reported that the Blue Jays still have interest in Bellinger, but the Cubs have a 'greater desire and need' for Bellinger's bat in their lineup. He has also reported that Bellinger is on the San Diego Padres' radar, as well.

While the Padres certainly have a need for Bellinger after trading Soto, the club seems unlikely to meet Bellinger's desired $250 million price tag. San Diego recently took out a $50 million loan and has been shedding payroll this winter.

So, is there any team that will be willing to pony up $200 million or more for Bellinger? The Cubs have the greatest need, but who are they bidding against? How high would the Giants, Blue Jays and Padres be willing to go in negotiations? And how long will Bellinger's camp be willing to hold out?

Some in the industry believe that Bellinger's free agency may carry over into spring training. If no team is willing to meet Bellinger's desired price tag, would he lower his asking price? If so, by how much? Or, would he take a one-year deal, with the goal of upping his value a year from now?

In his three seasons after he took home NL MVP honors in 2019, Bellinger slashed a collective .203/.272/.648 with a depressing 76 OPS+. Bellinger was non-tendered by the Los Angeles Dodgers last winter, making him a free agent for the first time in his career. In his lone season in Chicago, Bellinger reemerged as a star, slashing a remarkable .307/.356/.881 with a 133 OPS+, 26 home runs, 97 RBI and 20 stolen bases.

The question is, which Bellinger will show up in 2024? Was 2023 simply an anomaly, or has the former MVP rediscovered his form and turned a corner?

If Bellinger were to sign a one-year contract and string back-to-back All-Star-caliber seasons together, he would certainly increase his value on the open market, if he is willing to bet on himself and test the waters of free agency again, a year from now.