Numbers Suggest Chicago Cubs Second Baseman Will Turn Season Around

The Chicago Cubs have not gotten the best out of their gold glove short stop. The numbers show that he should be a bit better though.

Jul 14, 2024; St. Louis, Missouri, USA; Chicago Cubs shortstop Dansby Swanson (7) fields a ground ball against the St. Louis Cardinals during the seventh inning at Busch Stadium. / Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

The Chicago Cubs offense has had ups-and-downs this season and their former All-Star has been no exception.

While Dansby Swanson has never been known for his bat, it hasn't been a weakness of his either. That has changed this season as he has massively underperformed.

Swanson has a .212/.282/.350 slashing line through 87 games played. The .632 OPS would be the worst mark of his career and first time under .740 since 2018.

Though, he may be due for a turnaround. MLB's Cole Jacobson examined struggling former All-Stars and whether or not they will not have a better second half of the season.

As for Swanson, obviously he's been better in the past, but the numbers behind the curtain suggest that he should have already had a better season at the plate.

"The former No. 1 overall Draft pick certainly has reason to expect a turnaround. Both in slugging percentage and weighted on-base average, the gaps between Swanson’s “expected” value and actual value rank in the top six among 207 hitters with at least 250 plate appearances in 2024," said Jacobson. "His average exit velocity of 90.6 mph isa career high, and his 45.4% hard-hit rate is the second-best of his career (46.3%, 2022)."

While his xwOBA is the lowest it's been since 2017, the gap isn't as big as you may think. He's only about .20 from his average over the past few year while his actual wOBA has been at best .46 lower than it has been.

Another few numbers that show some unluckiness are his BABIP and xBA. His BABIP is much lower than it has been in the past and his xBA is a bit closer to normal at .243.

His approach at the plate hasn't changed much either. He's not chasing more pitchers, he's making contact at about the same rate. The biggest change is that pitchers are throwing more sliders at him than before, which has always been a big weakness for him.

The 30-year-old has remained an elite defender, which has kept him in the lineup amidst his struggles. He is behind just Bobby Witt Jr. and Anthony Volpe in terms of outs above average at short stop and No. 10 overall.

If Chicago can have him perform at that same level with his glove while returning to his previous form at the plate, the chase for a Wild Card spot will be made much easier.