Rumored Chicago Cubs Target Has Better Sabermetric Than Other Elite Free Agents

The Chicago Cubs could look at this one sabermetric category to buy low on a starting pitcher who could give them elite production.

Sep 11, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Boston Red Sox starting pitcher Nick Pivetta (37) on the mound against the Baltimore Orioles in the first inning at Fenway Park / David Butler II-Imagn Images

One area it almost certainly seems like the Chicago Cubs will be pursuing this winter is starting pitching.

Despite reportedly already taking themselves out of the Corbin Burnes race, there are other free agents on the open market who could provide the high-end starts they're looking for alongside Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga.

Cubs fans would love for the front office to spend cash on one of the premier starters available, and more momentum is beginning to gather that Max Fried could be a real option for them. However, history suggests price will become a major factor in negotiations.

Because of that, Chicago might have to turn their attention to some lower-level arms.

Someone in that tier is Nick Pivetta, but with him able to receive a qualifying offer from the Boston Red Sox for $21.05 million, there was a chance he might not actually hit the open market.

However, Jeff Passan of ESPN is reporting he likely won't accept the QO, instead using free agency to search for a long-term contract after he's posted a 4.29 ERA across his 131 outings and 107 starts with the Red Sox the past five years.

Because his career ERA+ is eight points below the league average and his most recent season was just three points above, he certainly isn't being viewed at like the other high-profile starters available this cycle.

That's why the Cubs have been linked to Pivetta.

Knowing they might not spend towards the top of the market, the right-hander certainly would be an interesting addition based on his advanced metric of Stuff+.

This sabermetric looks at the physical characteristics of a pitch, including release point, velocity, vertical and horizontal movement, and spin rate. That is then combined into a singular figure to compare across Major League Baseball.

For Pivetta, his Stuff+ of 133 is actually higher than Burnes (120), Fried (94), and even two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell (122).

No one would say he's the best pitcher out of this group by any means, but this one area is certainly something that could interest Chicago.

Maybe they feel like they can take his strong Stuff+ number and turn him into an elite starting pitcher while not paying him a top-of-the-market contract.

With him reportedly not accepting his qualifying offer, that will give the Cubs a chance to land him which would bring another potentially dominant arm to their starting rotation.