Inside The Cubs

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Mega-Extension With Blue Jays Is Worst-Case Scenario for Cubs

The Chicago Cubs are in a tough spot after Vladimir Guerrero Jr. agreed to a massive extension with the Toronto Blue Jays.

Kenneth Teape

Apr 6, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker (30) hits a one run single against the San Diego Padres during the first inning at Wrigley Field.
Apr 6, 2025; Chicago, Illinois, USA; Chicago Cubs outfielder Kyle Tucker (30) hits a one run single against the San Diego Padres during the first inning at Wrigley Field. / David Banks-Imagn Images
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The Chicago Cubs knew that they were going to have their work cut out for them when it came to retaining Kyle Tucker long-term.

Acquired from the Houston Astros in a blockbuster offseason trade, the star right fielder is playing out the final year of being under team control until he hits free agency. It was a massive risk to bring him on without a long-term extension in place.

With each passing day, it became more and more unlikely that something would get done between the two sides before he hit the market.

Scott Boras's clients rarely agree to extensions before hitting free agency and Tucker was coming off a campaign in which he produced MVP-caliber numbers but was able to be on the field for only 78 games because of injury.

He recorded a .289/.408/.585 slash line with 23 home runs, 13 doubles, 49 RBI and 11 stolen bases in only 339 plate appearances. The American League MVP race would have had another contender with that production extrapolated over an entire campaign.

It isn’t too much of a surprise that Tucker was willing to bet on himself. It has looked to be the right move for him, as he is off to another great start.

Through 12 games and 59 plate appearances with the Cubs, Tucker has a .319/.458/.745 slash line with five home runs, five doubles and 15 RBI. His 1.0 WAR, 13 runs, 15 hits, home runs, RBI and OPS are all leading the NL; the hits and 35 total bases are the most in MLB.

This is a trade Chicago would make 10 out of 10 times as he is anchoring their lineup and leading an offensive outburst just as the franchise was hoping he would.

Alas, something outside of their control has created a worst-case scenario for the Cubs to deal with.

On Monday morning, it became official that the Toronto Blue Jays and their star first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. agreed to a massive contract extension.

The two sides worked out a 14-year, $500 million deal that includes a full no-trade clause.

That deal is bad news for Chicago for a number of reasons.

For starters, there are already some insiders who don’t believe the Cubs are willing to pony up the kind of money that it may require to keep Tucker long-term. There is a chance his next contract starts in the $600 million range.

It would be a bit surprising to see him land a contract $100+ million more than Guerrero, but his consistent level of play and Gold Glove defense as an outfielder could be worth more in the eyes of some franchises.

Another reason this extension is a worst-case scenario for Chicago is that it means there is one less superstar who is going to be available on free agency this winter.

That likely means any teams who were going to throw large sums of money at Guerrero will now turn their attention to Tucker.

A bidding war is the last thing the Cubs want to see ensue, as their ownership has not shown a willingness to spend the kind of money a big market club normally would.

The odds of Tucker signing an extension ahead of free agency were already incredibly slim. They are likely nonexistent now, as he knows a healthy campaign is going to land him one of the largest contracts in sports history.

A doomsday scenario of Tucker being one-and-done with the franchise has become more likely with Guerrero signing an extension with Toronto, as it sets his floor for his next deal at at least $500 million to start.

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Kenneth Teape
KENNETH TEAPE

Kenneth Teape is an alumnus of SUNY Old Westbury and graduated in 2013 with an Honors Degree in Media Communications with a focus on print journalism. During his time at Old Westbury, he worked for the school newspaper and several online publications, such as Knicks Now, the official website of the New York Knicks, and a self-made website with fellow students, Gotham City Sports News. Kenneth has also been a site expert at Empire Writes Back, Musket Fire, and Lake Show Life within the FanSided Network. He was a contributor to HoopsHabit, with work featured on Bleacher Report and Yardbarker. In addition to his work here, he is a reporter for both NBA Analysis Network and NFL Analysis Network, as well as a writer and editor for Packers Coverage. You can follow him on X, formerly Twitter, @teapester725, or reach him via email at teapester725@gmail.com.

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